Five Mobile Trends for 2008

Among them: wireless carriers sharing networks and pushing data services, and the release of more multimedia devices like the iPhone

by Natasha Lomas

How is 2008 shaping up in the mobile and wireless world and which mobile and wireless technologies are you going to be hearing more about in the next 12 months? silicon.com picks the five key areas to watch…

The big squeeze, operators cosying up and a push on data

The January gloom has descended but mobile operators have less to look forward to than most as they face another year of declining ARPU (average revenue per user) in the more developed markets. This means there will be renewed impetus to push data services in these markets -- to claw back lost revenue and get the most out of existing 3G networks.

Gartner research director, Sylvain Fabre, told silicon.com: "There's a serious pressure on margins for the operators and it keeps getting worse. Then there's other stuff like Vivian Reding limiting roaming charges… so the life of a mobile operator certainly is not going to be as rosy and cosy as it has been for many, many years."

Alexandra Rehak, principal analyst at Analysys, added: "There's really no more growth to be had from pure voice on the mobile front. So if you look on the enterprise side we're looking to see a lot more creative packaging of mobile data services for enterprises."

Fabre predicts the year will see increased outsourcing activity and more operators cosying up by network sharing -- as 3 and T-Mobile did in the UK at the end of last year -- as they seek to shave costs to accommodate slimmer margins.

He said: "I think that's one of the things we'll see more of: attempts to squeeze costs out of the operation and move closer to an efficient utility -- like water or gas -- which can make lots of money obviously you do that by doing larges volumes with very low incremental cost."

Device convergence -- the rise of the multimedia handset

Doubt not: the iPhone started it. "Today Apple is going to reinvent the phone," said Apple CEO Steve Jobs last January as he unveiled the iPhone. The Mac maker made 2007 its mission to prove that three "revolutionary products" can come in one slick, touchscreen casing.

Where other devices had feared to tread -- or merely gingerly dipped a toe -- Apple planted itself, colossus-like, right in the centre of the mobile world: one foot in the iPod camp, the other reinterpreting the web for the small screen with Minority Report dexterity. And -- even if it remains a gloriously expensive high end device owned by fashionistas -- there's no doubting its impact. Analysys' Rehak said the device has been "a real catalyst for change in the market".

A year on from its launch announcement and the iPhone has itself been 'reinvented' by various mobile manufacturers. But as well as spawning plenty of would-be imitators, the device has galvanised interest in the mobile web -- by making it an enjoyable, not just viable, experience.

Discussing the rise in popularity of rich media mobile services, Dr Windsor Holden, principal analyst at Juniper Research, said: "Apple is to be congratulated for making more people interested and crucially aware that you can do these things on the mobile." Gartner's Fabre added: "It's certainly a game-changer. The iPhone is giving people a much better experience."

So expect more feature-rich, application-centric devices to emerge this year as operators step up to eat Apple's lunch -- if not steal its thunder. Rehak said: "[The iPhone is] not going to stay as the only great device for watching video and getting your email and talking as well. There are a lot of other devices that are going to be coming out in the market this year that can give it a run for its money."

Mobile 2.0 -- user-generated content, social networking, location-based services…

And if the devices are getting smarter, what you do with them is going to be more interesting too. The iPhone aside, Juniper's Holden points to "that tipping point where we have a fairly significant adoption of 3G handsets" that will help drive richer, multimedia services.

He said: "Within 2008 I think you'll see a much greater adoption of video-based services within Western Europe and the US than we've previously witnessed.