What Will the Olympics Do for China?

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So far at least, it looks as if Beijing is choosing a softer approach. That seemed to be the case earlier this week when Chinese police dealt with protesters supporting Tibetan independence outside the Bird's Nest national stadium, and with another group calling for more religious freedom for Christians that gathered in Tiananmen Square. According to an Aug. 5 Reuters news report, the Chinese police have been told to act with more restraint (BusinessWeek.com, 8/5/08) when confronting activists and not obstruct foreign journalists in their reporting.

Fears of Terrorism

The possibility of a terrorist attack during the Games has also become frighteningly real following a bus bombing in southwest China and a bloody attack on Aug. 4 in the western city of Kashgar, Xinjiang, that left 16 policemen dead. A video by an organization calling itself the Turkistan Islamic Party was released on Aug. 1 (this followed an earlier warning a week before) threatening attacks during the Olympics in retaliation for what it called China's "barbarism" toward its Muslims. "Do not stay on the same bus, on the same train, on the same plane, in the same buildings, or any place the Chinese are," a speaker with a face cover warned in the video, which also showed the Beijing Olympics logo in flames.

And while the likelihood of an attack in Beijing is slim, given the extensive security preparations by Chinese police and military, as well as a huge new security infrastructure (BusinessWeek.com, 8/7/08) mainly supplied by foreign companies, it is possible that a terrorist incident could occur elsewhere on the mainland. "The threat to the actual Olympic venues is assessed as medium to low," wrote Steve Vickers, president and CEO of Hong Kong-based International Risk in a note released just hours before the Games opened. However, "there is a genuine threat of terrorism in parts of the PRC; particularly those areas in close proximity to Xinjiang and to the border areas with Pakistan and Afghanistan."

Beyond the horrible human costs, a terrorist attack could also have an economic impact. If China decided to further tighten its restrictions on foreigners who want to live and do business on the mainland, that could begin to hurt the economy. Already new visa restrictions imposed in the runup to the Games have upset foreign companies and slowed the pace of doing business in China. A less open China could exacerbate conditions for an economy that is already showing signs of slowing (BusinessWeek.com, 8/7/08).

Of course, most people are hoping for a safe and successful Olympics, one that is not marred by any violent disruption and one in which China is able to show its best face to the world. That too could help nudge Beijing more quickly toward greater liberalization of a system that, many believe, still restricts political freedoms for its own people and limits its integration with the world. "China will be opening Olympicism to one-fifth of mankind: 1,300,000,000 people," said Jacques Rogge, president of the International Olympic Commission, at a press conference on Aug. 7, just one day before the Games opened. "The spotlight put by the Olympic Games on China will help both the world to understand China better and maybe for China to understand the world better."

With Chi-Chu Tschang in Beijing