Beijing's Olympic Smog: How Bad Will It Be?

China's blue-sky blues aren't going away even with factory closings and restricted driving. The region's climate is part of the problem

By Tatyana Gershkovich and Catherine Arnst

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A week before the start of the Olympics, Beijing's smog still threatens the Games. The effects of the polluted air are worrying to many Olympic athletes, some of whom have attempted to limit time spent in Beijing. National teams from the U.S., Britain, France, and Germany, to name just a few, have been doing their pre-Olympics training in Japan (BusinessWeek.com, 2/12/08) rather than take their chances in China. Australia's Olympic Committee is giving athletes concerned about the smog's impact on their health the O.K. to withdraw from events. Record-holding Ethiopian distance runner Haile Gebrselassie, who has asthma, has pulled out of the marathon, citing bad air.

Chinese officials knew they had to address the pollution problem (BusinessWeek.com, 7/28/08) and promised Beijing would enjoy "blue sky days" for the duration of the Olympics. To do that, they have shut hundreds of factories and coal-burning plants in Beijing and its environs. They have implemented odd-even day driving restrictions for most Beijing residents, with those who do not obey the rules threatened with a $14 fine. And they have made businesses stagger their hours of operation in order to avoid rush-hour commutes that generate spikes in pollution.

These actions should help reduce what's known as the "urban heat island" effect, in which air warmed by activity in the city creates a heat bubble that traps pollutants. Still, after spending $16 billion to improve the city's air quality by shutting down factories and improving mass transit, taking half the city's 3.3 million cars off the roads each day, and planting 22 million trees, China's leaders must wonder what could be missing when they see gray days like July 31, when smog hung over the city.

Pollution from Near and Far

Climate scientists say the key ingredient is luck: Steps taken to reduce pollution might amount to little if the weather doesn't cooperate. Despite the measures the government has taken in the capital, southern winds threaten Beijing's efforts to clean up by bringing pollutants from hundreds of miles away. Limiting activity in the city won't be enough to have a major impact on air pollution before the games, because much of the problem comes from the densely populated, industrial regions southeast of Beijing, scientists say.

The huge changes in the pollution levels from day to day result from cyclical weather patterns, says Kenneth A. Rahn, professor emeritus of oceanography at the Center for Atmospheric Chemistry Studies at the University of Rhode Island. Cold fronts bring clean air from Mongolia, and warm fronts carry unhealthy air from the south. About half the pollution in Beijing comes from surrounding areas, and on the haziest days it can be as much as 70%, according to Rahn.

The region's dry climate exacerbates the problem, because without rain, pollutants have more time to accumulate in the air as it travels to the city. "I don't think the Chinese fully understand this regional element, and I know they didn't understand the importance of these cycles," Rahn says. Scientists at Tsinghua University in Beijing have been observing these patterns for three years but have had limited success communicating their findings to the government. "Officials aren't knocking on their doors," says Rahn.

Dictators Take More Aggressive Measures

Beijing isn't the first smoggy city to host the Games. The strategies adopted by the Chinese to improve air quality are similar to those used in Los Angeles in 1984. Organizers there were able to have oil refineries, which accounted for much of the city's pollution, suspend production; meanwhile, fear of unprecedented traffic congestion kept many drivers off the roads.

The only way for the Chinese to reduce pollution drastically might be to order all cars off the road and shut down industry in nearby cities, says environmental consultant Timothy Ball, who chairs a Canadian nonprofit advisory committee on climate change.