Kazakhstan's Scary Uranium Ambitions

The Central Asian country intends to become the global leader in uranium production. Its proximity to hotspots like Pakistan and Afghanistan worries some

by Abdujalil Abdurasulov

This is the fifth in a series of articles from the TOL Special Report: Energy.

A few months ago a train headed from Kyrgyzstan to Iran was turned back at the Uzbek border after it was found to be carrying highly radioactive material. It had already traveled through southern Kazakhstan without the substance being detected at border checkpoints.

Kyrgyz authorities have said little about the incident, but it raises the specter of nuclear smuggling in the region just as Kazakhstan has embarked on an ambitious plan to become the world's leading supplier of uranium.

Such unaccounted-for radioactive material, especially highly enriched uranium, is floating around Central Asia, possibly crossing borders freely.

In a January interview with the Arabic daily al Hayat, Mohammed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, named Kazakhstan among the four states where most nuclear trafficking incidents occurred, noting that such material could be used for making a "dirty bomb."

As nuclear power elbows its way back into the world's energy picture, the uranium deposits of Kazakhstan could become what the oil fields of Saudi Arabia were 70 years ago, powering an entire new generation of reactors. But some say those reserves—and the country's plans to kick-start its nuclear energy program—could also make the world much less safe.

BIG PLANS

Already a leading producer of uranium, Kazakhstan intends to dominate the market by 2010. And it aims to move from simply selling raw uranium to exporting nuclear fuel.

Kazakhstan holds the second largest reserves of uranium in the world, behind Australia. Last year it produced more than 6,600 tons. This year, it plans to produce 9,600 tons, and by 2010, 15,000 tons, more than any other country.

"This sector will give Kazakhstan an enormous geopolitical influence in the world. If you removed Kazakhstan, then the global nuclear energy industry would collapse," said Mukhtar Dzhakishev, president of state-owned mining and power company Kazatomprom.

The Central Asian country already exports nuclear pellets to Russia, and recent agreements with Chinese and Japanese firms will send its nuclear fuel into new markets.

Kazatomprom estimates that by 2030, when most of the nuclear power plants now on drawing boards across the globe should be operating, Kazakhstan's budget could take in $15 billion annually from exports of nuclear fuel, three times what exports of raw uranium would yield.

"After the collapse of the Soviet Union, we had a broken cycle of fuel production," Dzhakishev said.

Kazakhstan is catching up quickly. Together with the Canadian company Cameco, it is building a conversion facility at the Ulba factory in eastern Kazakhstan, one of the biggest uranium processing plants in the world.

In 2006 Kazakhstan and Russia agreed to begin enrichment of Kazakh uranium at the International Uranium Enrichment Center in Siberia. A 2007 deal with Toshiba to purchase 10 percent of its Westinghouse subsidiary, a leading U.S. maker of nuclear reactors, gave Kazatomprom access to production of fuel assemblies.

At the same time, Kazakhstan is eyeing its own nuclear power program as a chance to become energy-independent. Officials are pinning their hopes on a new generation of reactors that can use new and recycled fuel, thereby reducing radioactive waste.

But if stepped-up uranium production and nuclear power can help ease the global energy crunch, they could bring with them another set of headaches, especially in a region close to hot spots like Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Last summer, Greenpeace and other environmental groups expressed concern about nuclear proliferation over the Westinghouse deal. They argued that it would jeopardize global security as Kazakhstan may become unstable in the future and terrorists may get hold of the technology to make a dirty bomb.

Dzhakishev called such fears groundless, saying, "Production of fuel assemblies has nothing to do with nuclear weapons."