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He could finally give the Chinese the legitimacy with Tibet that they claim they desire, but utterly lack, both historically and in the present, and he could give the Tibetans the political freedom, economic prosperity, and spiritual satisfaction they so ardently desire and deserve.
Open Chinese leniency with the uprising Tibetan people and sincere reconciliation with the Dalai Lama would secure the Chinese nation the respect and admiration of the world's people that they are courting with their extravagant hosting of the 2008 Olympics. This would be an enormous gain for China's leaders and China's people.
So why don't they just show their resiliency, relieve from duty the current hardline officials in Tibet who are the immediate cause of this recent mass outburst, and set about retrieving the friendly assistance of the key figure, His Holiness the Dalai Lama? The reason they have not already done so, and may not do so now, has nothing to do with some sort of fear of "loss of face," or simplistic egotistical pride that makes it impossible to admit a mistake, or fools one with the distorted thinking that being realistic is a sign of weakness.
It has to do with the fact that the Chinese leaders know full well that they have no plausible case for their invasion, annexation, and occupation of Tibet, and they fear that, if they openly negotiate with the Dalai Lama about the future of Tibet, it will bring up, for all to see, the issue of the right of self-determination of the Tibetan people. It might even make clear to all, the natural, historical, and legitimate independence of Tibet.
That is why Jiang Zemin and subsequent leaders continue to say they can only talk to the Dalai Lama if he states categorically that Tibet has always been an inalienable part of China. But as obliging as the Dalai Lama tries to be, he cannot state as the truth what is not true. No Chinese persons ever lived long-term in Tibet (that is, anywhere on the plateau above 12,000 feet) until 1950. So how can China validate its claim to having always "owned" Tibet?
However, the Chinese leaders need not be so afraid of this historical fact. Can they not hear the Dalai Lama's oft-repeated statement that he thinks it lies in Tibet's best interest to join the Chinese union? He is perfectly willing to let bygones be bygones and to join a "United States of China," persuading his followers, the entire Tibetan people, to ratify his carefully considered decision in a transparent, internationally supervised plebiscite that would finally give the Chinese government the legitimacy it desires. Why would they turn down this deal, refuse this immense gift freely given to them in spite of their decades of abusive behavior?
Do they think the price is too high? They call the western half of Tibet the "Tibet Autonomous Region," and the eastern half the 11 "Tibet Autonomous Prefectures" (plus a few "Tibet Autonomous Counties"). They simply have to let them be reunited as one single Tibetan Autonomous Region, and allow them to be truly autonomous, which means free of any oppression; they only have to remove their colonists and their occupation troops and armed police, and let the Tibetans have their own basic law and democratic government, run their own economy, and preserve their own environment (which needs a lot of restoration after half a century of reckless exploitation and dramatic mismanagement).
But this is not a loss for China—it will save them a huge amount of money, and it will save them the cost of the half-million troops they maintain there, the cost of the huge subsidies required to attract Chinese people to live with half the oxygen their lungs and hearts require for comfort and health, and the cost of the ill repute they have earned throughout the world for their destruction of Tibetan culture and natural resources. They can still garrison the borders of Tibet to ensure that the Burmese, Bhutanese, Indians, or Nepalis won't think that they could get away with an invasion of the barren highland.
They can still invest in mining, tourism, wool, salt, borax, or any other resources Tibet might offer, as long as their operations are entirely green. And, they will gain the applause, respect, and heartfelt admiration of the whole world and their own people, many of whom have a mysterious love for, and fascination with, Tibet. By showing a new face of kindness, realism, and reasonableness with the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan people, they will make their phrase "Peaceful Rise of China" have real meaning, and a huge sigh of relief will be heard around the world.
The only reason the Chinese leaders would not take this deal, the Dalai Lama deal, is fear. However, any such fear is entirely unwarranted. How can they be the truly powerful, truly risen, Great Chinese nation of 1.3 billion people, if they fear a harmless tiny group of 6 million Tibetan highlanders and their simple Buddhist monk leader, who goes to bed soon after dark and gets up every day at four in the morning in order to perform ritual prostrations, say his prayers, and practice meditation? Let them be the true Olympic heroes and show a new face of gentleness, rise to a new level of greatness, and join the Dalai Lama in demonstrating the power of truth to set all free.
Robert Thurman is president of Tibet House U.S. and professor of Indo-Tibetan Buddhist studies at Columbia University. His forthcoming book, Why the Dalai Lama Matters, to be published in June by Atria Books/Beyond Words, presents a win-win plan for China's creation of an autonomous Tibet.