Ukraine's Crisis to End all Crises

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The previous week Regions deputy Yuriy Boldyrev said of Yushchenko in open session in parliament, "His psychological health is not normal."

The rhetoric reflects the high stakes involved. If Yushchenko's attempt to dissolve the legislature fails - which could happen if the Constitutional Court rules against it or because of the many logistical and legal obstacles to holding a snap election - he will be under tremendous pressure to resign. In any event, his authority will have been further diminished and the Party of Regions will receive carte blanche to continue to erode Yushchenko�s powers. If, on the other hand, new elections are held, the Party of Regions may well suffer a setback. In recent months Yanukovych�s government has supported significant price increases for housing-related services across the country, diminishing its popularity among voters.

In addition, recent revelations indicate that the Party of Regions may have falsified election results from a year ago, when it took first place with 32 percent of the general vote. In February, Volodymyr Ariev, one of Ukraine�s few investigative reporters, presented a television program where he showed a stack of protocols of election results from the city of Horlivka, one of the largest in the Donetsk region, the home base of the Party of Regions. The protocols were allegedly found, partially burnt, on a waste dump by local journalists. Neither the Donetsk prosecutor's office nor the Horlivka election committee evinced any interest in the documents. Ariev's allegations that the protocols were falsified en masse and then partially destroyed remain unanswered. Officially, the Party of Regions won 74 percent of the vote in the Donetsk region.

WHO'S GOT THE POWER?
Yushchenko, Tymoshenko and their allies are also counting on a more pro-active campaign this time around. In the elections held in March 2006, Our Ukraine, in particular, ran a flabby and lackluster campaign. For her part, in what was an apparent attempt to save on costs, Tymoshenko went so far as to avoid running TV spots. This time around, if new elections are held, their approach will be more akin to pulling out all the stops. The stakes will be so high that Yushchenko and his allies may be willing to risk accusations of using "adminresurs" - financial and administrative resources controlled by the president - in the election campaign. In 2004, the Kuchma administration's blatant use of such tactics in Yanukovych's favor helped swing public opinion to Yushchenko.

With respect to government influencing elections, however, Yanukovych will have an edge this time. Currently, Yushchenko�s only supporters at cabinet level are Defense Minister Anatoliy Hrytsenko and Secret Service head Valentyn Nalyvaichenko. Neither is likely to be especially useful in an election campaign. But as chiefs of two of the three "power" ministries (the third, Interior Minister Vasyl Tsushko, is firmly in the parliamentary camp) they may have a role to play if events take a turn for the worse.

Unlike in 2004, when the Orange Revolution was in full swing, Yushchenko and Tymoshenko have called on their supporters to avoid demonstrating. Thus, since the presidential decree dissolving parliament was published, the streets of Kyiv have been left to Yanukovych�s supporters. Over the past week, their number has waxed and waned from several thousand to about 20,000. Their chief goal appears to be to occupy the city�s central square as well as plazas in front of the parliament and government buildings so as to keep them out of the opposition�s hands.

Heightened rhetoric combined with calm on the streets yields a general situation of waiting and expectation. In the meantime, parliamentarians from the Party of Regions have requested a review of the constitutionality of the president's decree from the Constitutional Court, the only body empowered to rule on the matter.

The role of the Constitutional Court is so crucial that its ability to deliver a dispassionate verdict is in some doubt. In one small indication of the tremendous pressure being put on the court from both sides to the conflict, court chairman Ivan Dombrowsky tried to resign the chairmanship, only for the other judges to reject his resignation on 4 April. Explaining his decision, Dombrowsky said that "The court is under pressure and has always been under such pressure." On 10 April, five judges declared at a joint press conference that they would not be participating in deliberations on the president�s decree because of "crude pressure exercised on individual judges as well as on the Constitutional Court as a whole," but did not name the culprits.

The Party of Regions has accused Yushchenko of attempting to improperly influence the court�s judges by meeting with them both before issuing his decree and after. For its part, despite its insistence on keeping parliament in session, Regions seems to be laying the ground for a possible new election by trying to remove the current members of the Central Election Commission. On 2 April, Yanukovych�s coalition majority in parliament voted to reinstate the 2004 commission. The former commission chair, Regions member Serhiy Kivalov, who was accused of falsifying voting results in the run-up to the Orange Revolution, even attempted to seize the current chairman�s office. A Kyiv court suspended parliament�s decision the following day, however.

The good news is that, thus far, the demonstrations have been peaceful and both sides have paid fervent lip service to the principle of rule of law and adherence to the constitution. Right now violence looks unlikely to erupt, but if and when the Constitutional Court makes a ruling, the losing side may decide not to recognize it. Then the issue of who controls the three "power" ministries may lead to an edgy confrontation of benefit to no one.

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