Ukraine's Crisis to End all Crises

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Parliamentarians who are known to be dissatisfied with the constant conflicts at the top or are unfriendly to the forceful Tymoshenko are first approached by moderate Regions deputies, Serhiy Leshchenko and Mustafa Nayem wrote for Ukrayinska Pravda. If they respond, they are invited to a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Andriy Klyuyev and, finally, to a talk with Yanukovych himself. The types of enticement applied are varied. Some are reportedly blackmailed over past sins, others offered money in the $1 million-$5 million dollar range, while still others are offered lucrative business contracts or similar deals.

Direct evidence of these claims is absent, although several of the defectors indirectly spoke of receiving inducements and one, Oleksandr Kovtunenko, stated in an interview that he had signed some "confidential" documents regarding his business participation in the energy sector and having to do with nuclear power stations.

DÉJÀ VU ALL OVER AGAIN
Yanukovych�s plan to increase the majority coalition�s size has borne fruit. On 21 March a key Yushchenko ally and former prime minister, Anatoliy Kinakh, took the post of economy minister in Yanukovych�s government, so disappointing Yushchenko that he called the move "immoral." Several days later, a dozen deputies approximately evenly distributed between Our Ukraine and the Tymoshenko Bloc defected, increasing the coalition�s size from 237 to 255 in the space of just over a month. Yanukovych boasted publicly that soon his coalition would number 300, enough to override presidential vetoes and amend the constitution.

Alarmed by this turn of events, Yushchenko moved quickly to enact his decree dissolving parliament.

Last summer when he nominated Yanukovych, Yushchenko had been dead set against the calls for him to dissolve parliament and hold new elections. At the time, he said this would be unconstitutional and commented, "This used to be popular: having lost the elections, annul them and perhaps you can win during new elections."

That Yushchenko has made an about-face in response to Yanukovych�s aggressive tactics is evident from a statement by Vyacheslav Kyrylenko, the newly-elected head of Our Ukraine, the parliamentary faction closest to Yushchenko. After Yushchenko issued his decree Kyrylenko stated publicly that, if Yushchenko had not set new elections, the rapid expansion of powers, authority, and resources by the Party of Regions would render the next regularly scheduled elections due in 2011 neither free nor fair, and present voters with no real choice.

Some observers have spoken of the expediency of Yushchenko�s decision to dissolve parliament. As early as last September, in referring to defections from his camp, Yushchenko said, "Returning to the use of force in order to create a majority in parliament, this is, in effect, a manipulation of the political results of elections, which is a falsification."

In what appears to be a coordinated move, on the same day Yushchenko dissolved parliament, parliamentarians from the Tymoshenko Bloc submitted a complaint to the Constitutional Court asking that the political reforms in place since January 2006 limiting the president�s powers be declared unconstitutional. It now seems that whoever prevails in the current standoff may decide whether presidential powers are returned to the status quo ante the Orange Revolution.

The battle lines are drawn, with Yanukovych�s coalition refusing to recognize Yushchenko�s decree. Parliamentary speaker and Socialist Party chairman Oleksandr Moroz, whose defection from the Orange coalition with Our Ukraine and Tymoshenko's bloc in the summer of 2006 precipitated Yanukovych�s return to power, has continued to convene parliamentary sessions in contravention to Yushchenko�s decree. In open session in parliament, Moroz called Yushchenko�s decree "criminal."

The battle of words has risen to a fever pitch. On Easter Sunday, in a public address to the nation, Yushchenko said, "Our obligation, mine and yours, is to clear the temple of Pharisees and money changers. ... My decision [to dissolve parliament] is constitutional and legitimate; there will be no turning back."