Ukraine's Crisis to End all Crises

Will President Viktor Yushchenko's decree to dissolve parliament and hold elections be the climax of the country's crisis?

by Ivan Lozowy

On 3 April President Viktor Yushchenko published a decree dissolving parliament and setting new parliamentary elections for 27 May. The decree comes on the heels of a protracted and bitter conflict with Viktor Yanukovych, whom Yushchenko himself had nominated to the post of prime minister exactly eight months earlier. The conflict lies at the heart of the reasons why Yushchenko has dissolved parliament, and although the standoff that ensued may end soon, the final outcome is far from certain.

When Yushchenko nominated Yanukovych for the post of prime minister last August he did so under pressure from a majority "anti-crisis coalition" formed in parliament by Yanukovych�s Party of the Regions and the Communist and Socialist parties after months of political bargaining. Yet the presidential administration had made it clear at that time that the president�s decision was voluntary, that the constitution did not mandate nominating the candidate put forth by a majority parliamentary coalition. Some, such as Yushchenko�s former principal ally, Yulia Tymoshenko, urged him to dissolve parliament right away instead, paving the way for new elections. Tymoshenko has long warned of the power of the Donetsk "clan," or financial-industrial grouping, headed by Yanukovych and Ukraine�s richest man, Renat Akhmetov.

In the summer of 2006 it seemed obvious to many, if not to Yushchenko himself, that there would be no peace between him and Yanukovych, his former opponent during the 2004 presidential race that ballooned into the Orange Revolution. Yanukovych represents the political and business elite of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, which is largely pro-Russian, distrustful of the West and nostalgic for the Soviet era. Yushchenko�s support, on the other hand, is strongest in western Ukraine and his policies are aimed at Ukraine�s speedy integration into the European Union and NATO.

YUSHCHENKO GAVE THEM AN INCH
Forecasts of troubled times ahead based on the incompatibility of Yushchenko�s and Yanukovych�s priorities have come true. After his election by parliament after being nominated by Yushchenko, as prime minister Yanukovych launched a series of initiatives aimed at restricting and narrowing Yushchenko�s powers and authority.

Immediately after taking office, Yanukovych and his allies quickly, in some cases in a matter of days, replaced top government officials, many of whom had been appointed by, or at least with a nod from, Yushchenko. In addition to appointing most ministers from the ranks of the anti-crisis coalition, Yanukovych also appointed deputy ministers without vetting them with the president, which is not required by law but has been a tradition since the presidency of Leonid Kuchma, under whom Yanukovych served his first stint as premier from 2002 until 2004. Yanukovych�s hatchet man for sweeping personnel changes was Mykola Azarov, the first deputy prime minister. On one day alone, 10 August, Azarov saw to it that people he had worked with became heads of the State Tax Administration, the Audit Directorate, and the State Treasury. According to one former high-ranking ministry official, Azarov replaced over 100 top government officials within just three days of Yanukovych�s appointment.

Less than a month after starting work, Yanukovych proposed that the right to appoint regional governors as well as the heads of local government administrations be taken away from the president. This is one of the most important appointment functions remaining with the president�s office. Previously, the president appointed the entire cabinet, but a constitutional change that took effect at the start of 2006 transferred much of that responsibility to the legislature. Currently, the president appoints only two ministers out of a total of 20: defense and foreign affairs.