Well, not exactly, but pretty much.

At the India Economic Summit Nov. 8, one of the many speak-a-thons that mushroom in New Delhi once the weather improves, Singh came out for a little bit of applause, a little bit of politics and little bit of wishful thinking.

The state of the Indian economy? "The worst is behind us."

The future of the Indian economy? "With a normal monsoon next year, we hope to achieve a growth rate of over 7 percent...Our medium term objective continues to achieve a growth rate of 9 per cent per annum."

Eradication of poverty, hunger and disease? " I am happy to say that we have delivered substantially on that promise. But the task is by no means (sic) unfinished." (I think he meant finished )

But there is news in between the platitudes. For instance, India's fiscal stimulus package, which measured anywhere between $50 and $80 billion, depending on how you count it, will be rolled back starting early next year. By most measures though, it was money well spent - government spending kept India's economy afloat when the private sector all but retreated last year. The effort almost broke the bank, though, and as the deficit climbed to 12% of India's $1.2. trillion GDP, it was clear there was no more where that came from.

Speaking of billions of dollars, Singh had just had a tete-a-tete with the Chairman of Wal-Mart's board, S. Robson Walton, and India's Commerce Minister, Anand Sharma, brought up Walton's enthusiasm for India as he totaled up foreign investment (some $35 billion for the twelve months ending March 2010, he estimated). Wal-Mart runs one store in India in a tie-up with Bharti, where it is allowed to sell only to shop-owners, not to customers. But when I visited that store earlier this year, in Amritsar in North India, not far from the Pakistan border, the lines ran out the door, the shoppers ooh-ed and aaah-ed at the prices, and the cash registers, literally, jingled. And even though organized retail is a puny little part of India's $450 billion retail industry, Wal-Mart has been lobbying India's government to open up foreign investment rules so that it can sell directly to customers.

Sharma is the shyer and less boisterous heir to Kamal Nath, who was India's last Commerce Minister, and is now relegated to drumming up foreign and state investment to build roads. It's an interesting study in contrasts - Nath made his name by holding up the last set of the Doha round of talks for a WTO-led global free trade pact, questioning the true intent of western investors. Now he flies around the world asking the same investors, if they will, please, help build a road in rural India.

Sharma, meanwhile, is the new face of Indian trade politics - reticent to speak his mind, even when egged on by reporters - and his appearance this week on the coat-tails of the Prime Minister underscores how closely Singh is monitoring the informal talks that continue non-stop. India's already signed a free trade agreement with South Korea, and with it's neighbors in the ASEAN region. By 2010, it might sign one with the European Union. That's a lot of ink in just a few months on the job.

But Singh speaks so rarely in public (the three public appearances in the last week notwithstanding) that any sense of direction from India's perpetually smiling economist-in-chief is helpful guidance for the over-eager markets, at least. The benchmark 30-stock sensex was up 300 points for the day, almost 2%. Bonds fell, and given the headlines in Monday's newspapers, Singh's stock rose.

That should go some way to assuage concerns that companies planning rivals to the Tata car are wavering. Two Bajaj executives, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told BusinessWeek recently that the company is finding it difficult to persuade suppliers to do the kind of aggressive research and development required to push down prices without a clear guarantee that it would produce a sizable number of cars, especially without an approved final design. Meanwhile, Nissan's executive vice-president for Africa, the Middle East, and Europe, Colin Dodge, told me at last month's Tokyo Motor Show that Nissan's input in the car is now minimal. "The project itself is very difficult," Dodge said. "Doing this car for around $2,500 and getting motorbike drivers to jump into four-wheel vehicles [is] very challenging…[but] the car is coming along."

Ghosn's comments suggest that, despite his leadership in the global push for electric vehicles, there is plenty of life in the project with Bajaj. Still, a few important questions remain. One is how many of the cheap vehicles will be built. In the original press release, Nissan said the car would be built at a plant in Chakan, Maharashtra, with an initial capacity of 400,000. As of October, Tata had only delivered 7,500 Nanos. Another is the price, especially if the Nissan-Renault-Bajaj car is sold outside of India. The Economic Times reports that Ghosn isn't sure if it will retail for $2,500 or $2,800 or $3,000. And, just as important for all involved, can they make any money selling such a cheap car?

The second piece of bad news is really just more of the same: another day of extremely high roadside pollution reported by RTHK radio this morning. A Hong Kong tourism official interviewed on the radio tried to put a brave face on things saying the problem—which he presumably thinks is only temporary-will go away soon. That’s little consolation for anyone visiting Hong Kong at the moment, where the average stay is just a few days. “The blight of air pollution is a tax on the whole tourism industry as it affects tourists during their visit and leaves a negative impression of the city that will affect their desire to return,” says Joanne Ooi, CEO of Clean Air Network, an environmental advocacy group focusing exclusively on air pollution in Hong Kong. “Reduced visibility leads to strong association with less developed cities like Mumbai that leaves a black mark on Hong Kong’s image.”

Equally important perhaps is that Hong Kong’s air quality leads to unfavorable comparisons with its regional rival Singapore which has has long benefited from its reputation as the cleanest and safest metropolis in Southeast Asia. More recently the Singapore government has made a big push to improve the city’s tourism attractions by hosting the Formula One race and allowing casinos to open their doors next year. Another selling point for Singapore: a Universal Studios theme park is also set to open in early 2010. Though smaller than Hong Kong Disneyland, its proximity to Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand will give it an advantage over Hong Kong.

But Shanghai is clearly the bigger threat to Hong Kong. Here’s what Parita Chitakasem, research manager at Euromonitor International in Singapore, who specializes in theme parks, had to say to me in an email. “Disneyland Shanghai will have two big features which will make it more attractive than its Hong Kong counterpart: although it is still early days, Disneyland in Shanghai will probably offer a much better experience for your money than Disneyland in Hong Kong – initial plans show that Shanghai’s Disneyland will be six times bigger compared to the current size of Hong Kong Disneyland, which is very small (only 16 attractions). Also, for visitors from mainland China, it will be much easier to travel to Disneyland in Shanghai, as there are no visa/cross border concerns to take care of.”

Still, the Shanghai project is still some years off. Indeed, the press release from Disney was short on details, saying it was in negotiations with the Shanghai government. The Burbank, California-based company will have a 40% stake in the Shanghai resort while the Chinese partners are as yet unnamed. But ff the experience of other U.S. corporations with joint ventures in China is anything to go by, Disney CEO Robert A. Iger is going to need a lot of pixy dust around to make things go smoothly.

Addendum:
Zhongnan University professor Sun Xiliang says on his blog on China.org says Disney needs Shanghai a lot more than Shanghai needs Disney.

Experts say there's no conclusive evidence that blue lights will do any good. "Train operators are desperate to do anything that will bring down the number of suicides," said Tsuneo Suzuki, a professor who specializes in color psychology at Keio University in Tokyo. "But there's no research that proves that blue lights will dissuade people from killing themselves."

Suicides are a common cause of disruption for Japan's railway operators. Last year, Japan recorded 32,249 suicides, a 2.6% fall from the previous year, according to National Police Agency statistics. Of the total, close to 2,000 people, or roughly 6%, had killed themselves by jumping in front of a train. Last year's figures were well below the record high of 34,427 set in 2003. So far this year, amid a recession and unemployment that's hovering near record highs, suicides appear to be on the rise again, with 24,846 reported through September.

On East Japan Railway's lines in Tokyo, suicides rose for the third straight year to 68 in the fiscal year through March--18 of them on the Yamanote line--from 58 the previous year. Company spokesman Koji Takano said the decision to use blue LED lights wasn't based on any researchers' specific findings.

In recent years, cities and railways operators have experimented with colored lights. In one highly publicized case, authorities in Glasgow, Scotland, put up blue lights in parts of the city, and later pointed to anecdotal evidence that crime had fallen. Last year, Japan's Keihin Electric Express Railway set up blue lights inside a station in Yokohama, just west of Tokyo. Other train operators have set up blue lights at railroad crossings.

Recently, officials from Tokyo-based private railway company Tokyu recently paid Keio University's Suzuki a visit to seek his advice about the psychological effect of colored lights. Forget about it, he said, not least because the lights would be switched off during the daylight hours. "I told them that I understood their concerns but that they won't solve a deeply rooted societal problem like suicide by putting up lights," he recalled. "If you showed that it was possible, you would probably win the Nobel Prize."

Given the underwhelming early performance of the iPhone, does RIM need to worry that Chinese will not rush to embrace the BlackBerry? Urban Chinese are some of the savviest cellular consumers around, frequently replacing their handsets, and they want the latest features at the lowest prices. One reason the iPhone isn’t a hit yet for Unicom, for instance, is the popularity of unauthorized iPhones that come loaded with more features than the legit ones offer. RIM won’t have to worry as much about competing with its own phones in the black or gray market, though. Strange as this might sound, RIM probably will find itself in a better position than Apple because the BlackBerry isn't nearly as popular in China as the iPhone.

For close followers of China’s monthly economic indicators, the upgrade should come as no big surprise. China’s Purchasing Managers Index, or PMI, issued by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing with the support of the National Bureau of Statistics, has been indicating recovery for several months. The latest PMI figures released on November 2, showed that economic expansion is gathering force, showing a figure of 55.2 in October, its highest level since April 2008 when economic growth was nearly red-lining. The index, which reflects manufacturer’s orders, indicated an expansion for the eighth month in a row.

That’s welcome news for China’s neighbors. Their economies have become increasingly tethered to China’s in recent years, supplying the mainland with components and raw materials used as inputs into its monstrous manufacturing industry. Exports from those countries initially plunged along with China’s as U.S. and European consumers went into thrift mode, but the growth in Chinese domestic demand has helped offset that decline somewhat thanks to China's pump priming and a huge turnaround in new residential property construction.

Here’s how the World Bank describes China’s recovery: “Most of the stimulus has shown up in infrastructure-oriented government-led investment. But some has been consumption-oriented and domestic demand growth has been broad based. Resurgent housing sales have started to feed through to construction activity. Investment in manufacturing is affected by spare capacity, but consumption has held up well."

The authors of the report note that one of the big challenges facing the Chinese economy is to achieve more balanced growth. This is a major theme in Stephen Roach's book "The Next Asia" China which I reviewed for BusinessWeek magazine in which Chinese consumers need to save less.

The World Bank East Asia and Pacific Update, which is published twice a year, also painted a brighter picture for Indonesia, which is expected to grow 4.3% this year as against a previous estimate of 3.4%. Estimates of 5.5% growth for Vietnam, and a 2.7% contraction for Thailand remained unchanged.

Singapore’s economy, one of the worst hit in Asia earlier this year by the global downturn, has catapulted its way out of recession, clocking a 14.9% quarter-on-quarter annualized growth in the third quarter. Year-on-year growth was 0.8%, compared with a contraction of 9.6 % and 3.2% in the first and second quarters. For more on this check Bruce Einhorn’s BusinessWeek magazine article “Singapore’s Economy Begins to Stir”.

But that’s not the only thing tipping the scales in favor of home-grown Asian B-schools. Most Asians who study in the U.S. do so with the intention of landing jobs there after graduation, but moves by U.S. lawmakers to restrict the hiring of foreigners on H1-B visas has narrowed their options. “We see strong protectionism that is most disappointing,” says Wilson, as I sneak a forkful of langoustine carpaccio. “There was a free flow of human capital for a long time,” he adds, noting that five of the seven U.S.-based Nobel Prize winners in sciences and medicine were actually born there.

Yet Asia is likely to account for most of the growth in prospective B-school candidates for the U.S. and Europe. That’s why GMAC, which administers the GMAT exams worldwide, is looking to open an office in the region. Indeed, in 2008, 29% of the GMAT test takers were Asian, a 70% growth since 2004. Wilson sees no reason why that number shouldn’t double in the next couple of decades. Meanwhile the number of U.S. test takers has barely budged over that time.

Over the course of lunch we discussed many of the findings from the Geographic Trend Report for GMAT Examinees published by GMAC. For example, test takers from Asia forwarded a lower percentage of their scores to U.S. schools [a strong proxy for applications] than they did in 2004. India saw a 470% increase in the number of score reports received, and Singapore 305%, while Chinese schools saw a 112% increase.

Here’s something else interesting from the report on the gender gap in test taking. [And no doubt one that fans of India vs China debate will want to weigh in on.]The number of women taking the test in from China outnumbered the men two to one. Now that either reflects their believe that China is a meritocracy, or it could mean that women feel they need to arm themselves with more degrees to compete with men in the workforce. [The world average is 39.5% of women among test takers of the GMAT in 2008 vs 60.5% by men.] The ratio was roughly the same for Vietnam and Thailand. For more on gender inequality in the region, have a look at this commentary by Bloomberg's William Pesek.

India, however exhibits almost the complete opposite phenomenon to China. Last year only 25% of the test takers were women, while men accounted for 75%. Even Japan and Korea, countries well known for their glass ceilings had a higher percentage than India. [Only Pakistan ranked lower, with women representing just 20% of test takers. I’m at a loss to explain this gender breakdown and hope you readers will offer your theories.

Region-wide, the Indian School of Business Post Graduate Programme in Management received more score reports from test takers than MBA programs at Harvard, U. Penn and Columbia. More tellingly perhaps is the country breakdown. From Singapore, more test scores were sent to local schools than U.S. schools. However Chinese candidates clearly prefer the U.S. education option, with 77% of scores sent to schools there. A mere 2% of scores were sent to Chinese MBA programs.

When Wilson and I weren’t reminiscing about our alma maters [we both went to Queen’s University in Canada and did graduate degrees at the University of California at Berkeley] and how in our day all you needed to do was sharpen your Number 2 pencils and limit your alcohol consumption on the eve of taking the GMAT, we puzzled over some of the more arcane data in the report. For example, more Nepalese took the GMAT in 2008 than did Malaysians. Neither of us could come up with much of an theory on that. Or why did so many Vietnamese test takers send their score reports to the University of Houston? It ranked number one, while Harvard was number nine among their choice. It sure seems like the admissions folks down in Clear Lake are making a big push to recruit Vietnamese.

One answered question in the report is why so few U.S. B-school hopefuls send their scores to our side of the pond over here in Asia.

The two sides actually announced their plans in November 2008. But Panasonic waited for antitrust authorities in Japan and other countries to give their approval before proceeding.

The reason for this is, a Panasonic-Sanyo alliance could be seen as too dominant in the hybrid and electric car battery sector. To avoid possible delays to the acquisition, Panasonic is expected to pare back its stake in Panasonic EV Energy, the battery joint venture with Toyota, from 40% to 20%. That would have the effect of lowering Panasonic's global share of the market for nickel metal-hydride batteries that power HEVs and EVs.

China's antimonopoly body gave its conditional approval last week. So did Europe's commission. Last Friday, at Panasonic's earnings announcement, President Fumio Ohtsubo expressed optimism that he would receive regulatory approval from U.S. antitrust authorities soon. They are expected to announce their decision by mid-December.

For close followers of China’s monthly economic indicators, the upgrade should come as no big surprise. China’s Purchasing Managers Index, or PMI, issued by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing with the support of the National Bureau of Statistics, has been indicating recovery for several months. The latest PMI figures released on November 2, showed that economic expansion is gathering force, showing a figure of 55.2 in October, its highest level since April 2008 when economic growth was nearly red-lining. The index, which reflects manufacturer’s orders, indicated an expansion for the eighth month in a row.

That’s welcome news for China’s neighbors. Their economies have become increasingly tethered to China’s in recent years, supplying the mainland with components and raw materials used as inputs into its monstrous manufacturing industry. Exports from those countries initially plunged along with China’s as U.S. and European consumers went into thrift mode, but the growth in Chinese domestic demand has helped offset that decline somewhat thanks to China's pump priming and a huge turnaround in new residential property construction.

Here’s how the World Bank describes China’s recovery: “Most of the stimulus has shown up in infrastructure-oriented government-led investment. But some has been consumption-oriented and domestic demand growth has been broad based. Resurgent housing sales have started to feed through to construction activity. Investment in manufacturing is affected by spare capacity, but consumption has held up well."

The authors of the report note that one of the big challenges facing the Chinese economy is to achieve more balanced growth. This is a major theme in Stephen Roach's book "The Next Asia" China which I reviewed for BusinessWeek magazine in which Chinese consumers need to save less.

The World Bank East Asia and Pacific Update, which is published twice a year, also painted a brighter picture for Indonesia, which is expected to grow 4.3% this year as against a previous estimate of 3.4%. Estimates of 5.5% growth for Vietnam, and a 2.7% contraction for Thailand remained unchanged.

Singapore’s economy, one of the worst hit in Asia earlier this year by the global downturn, has catapulted its way out of recession, clocking a 14.9% quarter-on-quarter annualized growth in the third quarter. Year-on-year growth was 0.8%, compared with a contraction of 9.6 % and 3.2% in the first and second quarters. For more on this check Bruce Einhorn’s BusinessWeek magazine article “Singapore’s Economy Begins to Stir”.

One sign of just how bad things have gotten: In late September, Aiful, Japan's second-biggest consumer lender, asked its own creditors for more time to pay off debts. With new tougher regulations set to go into effect next June, including a lower cap on what consumer lenders can charge, the industry was starting to resemble a train wreck in slow motion. Last fiscal year, Promise and Takefuji swung to an operating loss, while Acom's profits fell to less than half the previous year's level. By the end of September, the number of consumer lenders had fallen to less than 5,000, from more than 14,200 in March 2006, according to the Financial Services Agency.

Now Japan's government seems ready to offer a reprieve. Yesterday, the financial daily Nikkei reported that Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama plans to form a study group this month that will consider putting off some of the harshest rules governing consumer lenders. The rules set to start next summer would lower the maximum rate lenders can charge consumers from 29.2% to 20% and limit certain loans to a third of a borrower's income. The Nikkei report sent share of Japan's four biggest consumer lenders--Aiful, Takefuji, Acom and Promise--sharply higher yesterday. Takefuji's shares rose 23%, while Promise and Acom posted 17% gains.

The government isn't just trying to help consumer lenders, which need the help. (They lost nearly $49 billion in part because borrowers contested high rates or were unable to pay interest or keep up with loan repayments.) It's also targeting many self-employed Japanese who appear to have borrowed from consumer lenders to stay afloat. More than half of these borrowers would be ineligible for more loans under the new rules, according to a study published by the Japan Financial Services Assn. last month.

Japan's top banks would also get a boost if the government study group acts. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group owns Acom, and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is part owner of Promise. And while Takefuji and Aiful aren't directly backed by a major bank, they count big financial institutions among their top creditors and investors.

But government-led efforts to throw a lifeline to certain sectors could be divisive. Some Western bankers are already crying foul over what they see as a deliberate attempt by politicians to prop up deadbeat companies. Nobody will go on the record to say so but several whom I’ve spoken with point to falling bankruptcies, looser rules on how banks must report bad loans, the government’s moves to save JAL as evidence that this is happening. (And, of course, not everyone I spoke to agreed with that view.)

In September, the number of companies that went out of business fell 15.7% to 946, from a year earlier, according to Tokyo-based market researcher Teikoku Databank. It was the first drop since May 2008. And on Oct. 30, Financial Services Minister Shizuka Kamei submitted legislation to Parliament that would help small businesses reschedule bank loans--giving them more leeway to avoid collapse.

Among critical Western bankers, Japan Airlines is Exhibit A.

Aiful's plight has drawn plenty of criticism as well. In September, the consumer lender, facing the possibility of bankruptcy, said it would resort to a closed-door negotiating procedure, called alternative dispute resolution. ADR lets Aiful ask for more time to repay its debts to around 70 creditors. But it's still not often used, and some bankers saw Aiful's decision as a way to delay what they saw as certain default.

One creditor protested: Aozora Bank, a mid-sized Tokyo-based bank whose largest shareholder is private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management. The bank, owed nearly 38 billion yen ($420 million) as of August, felt that Aiful was already in default.

Why would a bank want a borrower to go out of business? Aozora sought to cash out of securities that insure holders against default on many types of debt, called credit default swaps. Such swaps are privately negotiated, not traded on an exchange. Banks and hedge funds use them to hedge or speculate on a borrower's ability to repay its debt. But Aozora couldn't recoup some of its investment from the credit default swaps unless Aiful had been ruled in default. ADR blurred the line between when a company is in default--does it begin with rescheduling debt payments--and when it isn't. On Oct. 2, Aozora took up its case with the International Swaps and Derivatives Assn. Four days later, the ISDA rejected Aozora's claim.

A New York Times blog about the deal provoked a number of comments from U.S. readers upset that the project would generate more jobs overseas than at home, a particularly vexing notion given that the project is seeking 30% of its financing from Washington stimulus funds. But what a lot of readers overlooked [though the Times did not] was that A-Power is listed on Nasdaq. Remember that ordinary Chinese are not allowed to invest in overseas stocks, so while jobs may be created in China, the profits will accrue to U.S. and other international investors in A-Power. [Its stock traded up 15% Oct. 29 on the news]. Other Nasdaq-listed Chinese renewable energy companies include solar panel makers Suntech [STP] and Trina Solar [TSL] which have made strong inroads into the U.S.

But it’s not just the Chinese who are gaining ground in the U.S. renewable energy sector. At the end of 2008, Indian wind turbine maker Suzlon Energy had 10% of the U.S. market. Though it built a $25 million dollar rotary blade factory in Pinestone Minnesota employing 400 people, [the economics of wind power dictate that blades be manufactured close to market] the more costly turbines are made in India. More telling perhaps of the realities of globalization in the renewable energy sector: all engineering and research work is also done in India.

That reminds me. While writing a story about U.S. investment in Southeast Asia, I noted that Tempe,Arizon-based First Solar [FSLR] is building a $680 million solar panel factory in Kulim, Malaysia. The company denied my request for an interview or for a response to written questions, leaving me to conclude it was not keen on publicity about its offshore investment. The most recent mention of the investment appearing on the company website was a 2007 press release.

An alert reader pointed out to me that First Solar in September signed an memorandum of understanding with China to build a 2-gigawatt solar power field, perhaps becoming the world's largest such facility, sprawling across an area in Inner Mongolia [a province that is also heavily into wind-powered energy also a huge wind farm area] larger than Manhattan. Here's some info from the company's website.

Here's another intriguing U.S. company, Check out this interesting piece in the latest BusinessWeek magazine by my colleague Adam Aston about a new wind turbine under development by FloDesign in Wilbraham (Mass.)Its prototype designs incorporate features used in jet engines instead of the traditional propeller-type blades in use today.

This despite an operating loss of $356 million (32.6 billion yen) in the July-September quarter, from a profit of $120 million (11.05 billion yen) a year ago. Many analysts had expected Sony to post a bigger loss.

Still, Sony has a raft of problems to fix. Its mobile phone joint venture with Sweden's Ericsson is struggling in the smartphone market. And while the profitability of its gaming and TV businesses are improving, they are expected to continue losing money for some time. Chairman and CEO Howard Stringer plans to discuss Sony's latest strategic plans at a press event in November.

Here's an excerpt of the Q&A part of today's press conference with Sony's CFO Nobuyuki Oneda:

Q: When do you expect games and TVs to stop losing money?
Oneda: We want them to be in the black as soon as possible--hopefully by next year. For TVs, it takes time to revamp the supply chain. We've made very detailed changes, and in just one year we've cut back and overhauled the entire operation. In November, we will explain what our business plans are for next year. We'll talk about our 3D TV plans, too.

Q: How are the PS3 cost reduction efforts coming along?
Oneda: The PS3 now costs about 70% less than it did when it first came out (in November 2006). PS3 costs are now more than 10% higher than revenues from the console. By the end of the year, that difference will fall to one digit. And by next fiscal year, the PS3 should be making money.

Q: Can you offer any specifics about your strategy for the yearend holiday?
Oneda: We're focusing on how much sooner we should launch our new TV models that we'd planned for spring. Unfortunately, Samsung is beating us in liquid-crystal display TVs that use a light-emitting-diode backlight. We miscalculated. If move up the launch of our new models, we think we can improve our profitability. And we're continuing to cut costs.

Q: Samsung reported big profits today. What's your take on their results?
Oneda: One of Samsung's strengths is that they make their own LCD panels. The Samsung group uses the amortization on investment in assembly lines to their advantage. The Korean won also has fallen about 30% against the U.S. dollar. But basically I think our disadvantage is the inferiority of our products. We have to recognize that. You might say we lost the marketing war. Sony put LED backlights in LCD TVs before Samsung. But we put them mainly in high-end models. Samsung had them in their high-end and mass-market models. That was the strategic difference. We can definitely learn a lot from their TV operations and supply chain management. We need to raise our operations and products to their level by next spring. After that, we want to close the gap with 3D and device technology.

Q: How will you compete with Samsung?
Oneda: Our basic strategy is, we want to do the high-end TV models in house. The entry-level TVs will be outsourced to cut costs. We're putting a lot of energy into selling TVs in emerging markets. As for whether we plan on owning panel-making plants, we're still making LCD panels in our joint venture with Samsung. Besides that, we're working with Sharp. And we're buying LCDs from Taiwan. We're trying as much as possible to reduce the cost of our panels.

--With Hiroko Tashiro

ChiNext certainly serves up the kind of fare that caters to the tastes of chao gu traders. Take Huayi Brothers, a Beijing-based film production company which has worked with box office stars including Jackie Chan, Jet Li and Zhang Ziyi. Within minutes of the opening bell its shares soared 129% from its IPO price and by midday were up the close was up 210% to yield a price-earnings multiple of 151. By comparison, the average price earnings ratio based on estimated 2009 earnings for companies on the Shanghai Stock Exchange is about 21. Another company, Beijing Toread Outdoor Products, which makes and retails camping accessories and clothing, surged 152.5%, Bloomberg reported. Medical device maker Lepu Medical Technology, the largest company on the bourse, leapt 182% by 1:00 p.m. giving the company a valuation of $4.3 billion.

Today's price moves might have been even bigger were it not for the existence of circuit breakers. In fact, all 28 companies' shares were suspended at one point. The first trigger point on ChiNext occurs if prices have moved up 20%--leading to a 30 minute pause in trading. The next 30 minute halt takes effect after a 50% move, and if the difference between the high and low of the day exceeds 80%, the stock is only allowed to trade in the final three minutes before the closing bell. [The trading band is based on the first trade of the day, not the IPO price.] Compared to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which has had a 10% daily price change limit, ChiNext offers greater thrills to investors in search of a white-knuckle ride. [Nasdaq's first trigger point occurs at 10%, then 20%, and trading is suspended for the entire day if price swings reach 30%.]

UPDATE: There was a severe reversal of fortunes on the second day of trading, Monday Nov. 2. According to Bloomberg, 20 of the 28 stocks traded down the daily limit of 10% as investors took as much money from their first day gains off the table as they could.

But we will have to wait and see whether the frenetic pace of trading set on the first day is sustainable. Volumes in any market typically soar on the initial day of trading following an IPO and today’s launch of ChiNext amounts 28 simultaneous trading debuts. And nearly all the activity is from small retail investors. Because of the relatively small size of the market- before the first day of trading, the combined market capitalization was just $10.2 billion [Shanghai's market capitalization is about $2.48 trillion], and though this more than doubled on the first day, all but a handful of institutional investors are likely to participate. What’s more, many funds raised their cash long before the new bourse opened, and do not have a mandate to invest in it. The 28 companies on the growth-enterprise board raised a total of $2.27 billion in their IPOs.

But at these price levels, even funds which can invest in ChiNext are unlikely to do so. Simon Murray (China) launched its $250 million SMC China New Market Fund on October 1, in part to invest on the new bourse. However its Shanghai-based chief investment officer Tony Yam says he rather wait on the sidelines until the froth comes off the market. “Some of these companies look interesting and have been purposely selected by the regulators as good quality or new sector companies,” he told me the night before the market opened. “But we are fundamentals driven and we have set entry level prices…but right now they are not trading at cheap valuations.” Considering how much prices moved up on the first day, Yam will be watching from the wings for some time to come.

While ChiNext is bound to leave lots of carcasses of unwary investors by the wayside when the inevitable correction comes along, the new exchange is a welcome development in China's long march to liberalize its financial sector. "It's very positive because China needs to create a good system to help high quality but good companies to reach capital to fund growth other than the main boards consisting of larger listed companies," says Tian Rencan,CEO of Fortis Haitong Investment Management.

Private enterprises face enormous obstacles in raising capital, as banks tend to regard state-linked enterprises as less risky borrowers. The Shanghai Stock Exchange is still predominantly made up of state-controlled companies which depend on connections as much as economic fundamentals to get permission to list their shares in a process that is far from transparent. Whether ChiNext will be any less opaque remains to be seen.

What might Nintendo do? One topic that would set the blogosphere abuzz would be for the company to drop hints about a new console. With the Wii, it probably won't happen for at least another year, since the living-room console is still only three years old (five years being the usual time gap between generations). A new DS portable could be in the making, too; it's now closing in on six years. But the DS just got a makeover--a camera, built-in memory, extra features--in recent months and Nintendo may want to give the DSi a chance first.

Analysts aren't ruling out new hardware, though. Citigroup Global Markets Japan analyst Soichiro Fukuda thinks Nintendo could announce its launch plans for a new portable device at the start of 2010, and start handing out development kits to game makers within a few months. Fukuda made the prediction in an Oct. 2 note to investors.

Assuming that Nintendo's earnings pattern mirrors last year's, the company could still have a big holiday season and make up for it. (The second quarter accounted for 22% of overall sales and 24% of operating profits last year.) That won't be easy, though. The real nightmare scenario would be this: Nintendo stumbles during the holiday season. That's because the company made well over a third of revenues and nearly half of profits last fiscal year.

There's little Nintendo can do about a strong yen: It will go on hurting overseas profits, as it does all Japanese exporters. Nintendo is vulnerable because it makes all but 13% of revenues in markets outside of Japan.

So adding froth to sales of the Wii and DSi in time for the holiday season will be key, not least because gaming hardware constitutes more than half of annual revenues. The price cut for the Wii in late September was supposed to help but doesn't seem to have done the trick. (Sony reduced the price of its top-of-the-line PlayStation 3 by $100 to $300 in August, sparking big sales gains. Microsoft also reduced the cost of the most expensive Xbox 360 model to $300.)

The patina of newness for Nintendo hardware is clearly wearing off. Quarter by quarter, Wii sales are slowing. That doesn't take away from the fact that its cumulative total--56.1 million units--still makes it the king of this generation of living-room consoles. Sales of the DS, the top-selling portable game machine, were just shy of 113.5 million units at the end of the second quarter, but they're not as strong as they used to be, either. The DS's problem has been competition from Apple's iPhone, now a popular gadget for games.

Here's the outlook.
Revised fiscal-year forecast:
Sales 1.5 trillion yen
Operating profits 370 billion yen
Net profits 230 billion yen

Previous fiscal-year forecast:
Sales 1.8 trillion yen
Operating profits 490 billion yen
Net profits 300 billion yen

Last fiscal year's figures:
Sales 1.84 trillion yen
Operating profits 555 billion yen
Net profits 279 billion yen

These works will go under the hammer on November 29. This time last year the Chinese art auction market was in disarray as financial storm was still gathering force and the autumn sales saw only about half of the Chinese works sold. Ingrid Dudek, senior specialist for Chinese 20th Century Art & Asian Contemporary Art explained to me her reason for optimism. “In a market that is rebounding, the seller confidence has not recovered while the buyer confidence has.” So people are hoping to snap up works now before the market really picks up steam again, while the only sellers out there are people who bought their works long before the market went ballistic between 2006 and the first half of 2008. Vinci Chang, Vinci Chang, Vice President, Head of Sale for Chinese 20th Century & Asia Contemporary Art agrees. “Right now it's very difficult to source top works by artists” like Zhang Xiaogang and Yue Minjun whose works sold for millions during the frothy days of 2006 to 2007. "Most owners would rather hang onto them."

That's the nice thing about the art market. Even though the value of your assets may be distressed you can still enjoy them on your own walls. I was grateful to eat a single meal in the company of superb art works. One can only imagine the pleasure of living with them day after day.