Dispatch from Copenhagen: The Final Day Countdown

Posted by: Mark Scott on December 18, 2009

After two weeks of negotiations, global leaders now have less than 24 hours to hammer out a deal to tackle climate change. Inside the Bella Center — the Copenhagen conference hall where delegates from 192 countries are negotiating — the scene is chaotic.

Politicians, from European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, are giving impromptu press conferences in the halls, with TV cameras four-deep jostling for an angle. Rumors abound over new deals, and press conferences are routinely canceled at the last minute.

Inside the main negotiating hall, a who’s who of world leaders made their case for action. A speech from U.N. Secretary Ban Ki Moon was followed by one from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. Then came U.S. President Barack Obama: “While the reality of climate change is not in doubt, our ability to take collective action hangs in the balance,” he told the packed conference room (for the full text, (http://greeninc.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/12/18/president-obamas-climate-speech/#more-36395). “I believe that we can act boldly, and decisively, in the face of this common threat. And that is why I have come here today.”

Despite the statements from Obama and others about the urgency for action (and there does appear to be more weight behind today’s events as so many politicians are in town), the same issues that have tripped up earlier negotiations still remain. Here’s a quick cheat-sheet:

1) Emissions Cuts: Emerging economies want developed countries to shoulder the most of CO2 cuts. Under the Kyoto Protocol, that’s how it’s laid out, but the U.S. (which didn’t sign the treaty) and Europe (which wants to start anew so as to include America) have balked. Instead, the West wants the largest developing countries, particularly China, to agree to binding cuts. Obama met with Wen Jiabao to discuss the issue on Dec. 18, as well as with other leaders from developing countries. But who will have to cut the most is still up in the air, and any binding CO2 targets for all countries appears unlikely to come out of Copenhagen.

2) Transparency: This is a key stumbling block between the U.S. and China. Under the current global carbon agreement, Western countries can offset their CO2 emissions by funding eco-friendly projects in emerging economies. Yet the U.S. wants developing countries to allow the West to monitor how that money is spent. More importantly, the U.S. wants to ensure the projects, such as wind-farms in China or energy efficiency programs in India, wouldn’t have been built without outside aid (so-called additionality in ‘climate’ speak). Emerging economies say domestic monitoring would violate their sovereignty, but Obama told delegates in Copenhagen: “Without such accountability, any agreement would be empty words on a page.”

3) Financing: Like it or not, money is the key to getting a deal done. Over the last two weeks, Western countries have been ramping up aid, but some (read: the U.S.) want the cash to go to the least developed countries, not China. Why? Because U.S. policymakers don’t want to fund the growth of its emerging economic rival. The money is broken into two. So-called ‘fast-track’ funds will total over $30 billion, and will come from a number of developed countries, including the U.S. ($10 billion), Japan ($15 billion), and the European Union ($10.6 billion). The money will be doled out between 2010 and 2012. A larger pot -- expected to be around $100 billion to $150 billion -- could be put together by 2020, and would come from both public and private funds. The major sticking point is how the money should be spent, who should receive the hand-outs, and how would donor countries control the funding process.

As world leaders reconvened after lunch mid-afternoon in Copenhagen on Dec. 18, there were hopes some of the issues could be resolved. Brazilian President Lula Inaico Lula da Silva, for instance, said he would be willing to contribute to the $100-$150 billion financing target if a deal could be reached. Further compromises, particularly around eco-funds, were expected on Dec. 18 as leaders pushed to get a climate change deal completed before the summit closes.

Yet two stumbling blocks -- emissions cuts and transparency -- may well be too difficult to overcome. Negotiations are likely to last well into the night, with most policymakers planning to spend the weekend in Copenhagen. After so much political capital has been put on the line by world leaders, no one wants to go away from Copenhagen empty-handed.