Iran: What Does it Mean for Business?

Posted by: Stanley Reed on June 22

So far it’s a hard call. Much is still up in the air. A key factor will be what the Guardian Council, the group reviewing the election, finally say about the disputed June 12 vote. Members of the group have hinted that they have made up their minds in favor of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. If the Guardian Council’s review fails to satisfy supporters of the defeated candidate, Mir Hussein Mousavi, then protests could move to a new level such as a general strike.

Business would likely have mixed views of such an outcome. On the one hand, business deplores instability that might mean lost production. On the other, many Iranian entrepreneurs would like to see Ahmadinejad replaced.

There are signs of splits in the elite. As has widely been noted, several members of the family of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, who is close to business, have been briefly detained in what appears to be an effort to intimidate the longtime power broker.

A less-remarked instance of disaffection came from Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, a conservative who is close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Larijani has said that a majority of Iranians do not believe the vote was fair and has criticized the state media’s handling of the election. He has called for an investigation into the vote that puts the doubts to rest. “Although the Guardian Council is made up of religious individuals, I wish certain members would not side with a certain presidential candidate,” said Larijani, according to a Web site affiliated with him, the Washington Post reported. In addition, the government is acknowledging that reported votes exceeded registered voters in some 50 Iranian cities, possibly affecting 3 million votes.

The Revolutionary Guards may be issuing threatening statements, but Mohsen Rezaie, a former commander of the group, is one of the candidates protesting the vote. He says he was robbed.

Despite such signs of unease, the regime still seems to be banking that a combination of half-measures, such as partial recounts, and repression ends the protests. There’s reason for the regime to doubt the opposition’s staying power. One wonders, for instance, how long the cause of electing Mousavi, who is, after all, a longstanding regime insider, will maintain its appeal. But at the same time the reaction to the elections has the feel of something big. Stay Tuned!