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US Stripper Wells More Important than OPEC?

Posted by: Stanley Reed on December 04

US stripper wells will be the key to determining oil prices over the next couple of years rather than OPEC. Bernstein analysts Ben Dell and Neil McMahon made that argument in a presentation today. “It is quite interesting that OPEC is turning into a largely irrelevant organization,” McMahon said. From what we have seen of late he certainly has a point. OPEC has met three times this fall and is scheduled to confab once again on Dec. 17 in Algeria. It has announced 2 million barrels per day in cuts. Yet the price has now fallen more than 60% to the dreaded mid-$40s per barrel.

Instead, McMahon says the serious, market-impacting production cuts of the next couple of years are likely to come in North America, and especially from small stripper wells that produce only 15 barrels per day or so. Those amount to a hefty 85% of U.S. onshore wells and account for about 18% of such production. These wells require care and feeding and are the easiest to shut down when prices fall. Bernstein figures that as much as 1.3 million barrels per day could eventually come off the market.

The credit crunch is also hurting supply with smaller exploration and production companies struggling to finance drilling. OPEC sources also say that smaller refining companies are having trouble gaining accesss to credit to finance oil purchases.

Bernstein views the oil market as oscillating between the rising costs of producing the marginal barrel of oil—now perhaps $80 per barrel—and the cash cost of producing the oil—now around $40 per barrel. With demand dropping fast, oil is falling toward this cash cost and could overshoot. A Merrill Lynch analyst warned that $25 per barrel was possible. But when it costs more to produce oil than it brings in, production will be shut down. That’s especially true of small, marginal operations.

Bernstein’s outlook is for prices in the $40 per barrel range early next year, followed by a recovery to the $70 zone toward the end. They think prices could average $80 per barrel in 2010. This scenario implies optimistic assumptions about a global economic recovery.

Reader Comments

Mr. X

December 4, 2008 01:41 PM

So am I now supposed to feel bad after they overcharged me when oil traded around $150 per barrel and I had little to no other options than paying up?

Oil is cheaper because credit for speculation has dried up and investments banks are shutting down risky business practices revolving around speculation in commodities.

Besides, oil causes so much pollution - during drilling and when burnt - so why is it bad that we might be able to now use alternative energy (from hopefully non-polluting renewable resources) at less cost than oil (especially since we already passed peak oil!)?

The people here crying are the ones that already made fortunes in the oil industry. Even more so - do we really prefer to transfer billions of dollars out of the US to the Middle East, Venezuela, and Russia?

So less money for oil means less production, less wealth transfer, less pollution (health care savings?) and maybe even less wars!

Let's make the US the leader in non-polluting energy, restore the economy, increase employment in a new and local sector and have something of value to export that we actually produce and can continue to do so for centuries (technology & know how).

Squeezebox

December 4, 2008 01:49 PM

Another thing keeping oil prices low is that refineries are being upgraded to handle messier grades of oil. That means that cheaper oil will get bought and refined before the expensive stuff does. Dollar gas anyone?

David

December 4, 2008 03:27 PM

Driving is for losers.

Dan

December 4, 2008 09:46 PM

"So why is it bad that we might be able to now use alternative energy (from hopefully non-polluting renewable resources) at less cost than oil?"

Mr X, Alternative energy costs the same now as it did when oil was $145 a barrel. Alt. energy costs have NOT declined. The only difference is that oil is a lot cheaper now, so alternative energy is going by the wayside. Wind energy farms are now being canceled. We are back to cheap oil environment for the forseeable future.

Robert Smith

December 4, 2008 10:54 PM

Consider all the expenses of foreign nations that sell oil. The drop in prices does not change these nation's expenditures or promises to the people. Populism has a cost as Venezuela is learning. US production can drop but this is a global commodity with global players with big promises to fulfill. Lets use this break to reinvent US energy policy to reflect a investment in the US not foreign sponsors of terror. Security, jobs, environment, and a way to revitalize domestic rural areas; the US Treasury: Investing In America's Future.

John Bailo

December 4, 2008 11:22 PM

You realize it's all nonsense of course. $80 a barrel in costs? Please...it doesn't take $80 to pump a gallon of liquid platinum! The cost of getting oil from the ground is becoming near zero. Add in alternative fuels and we might not be using any oil except for plastics and fertilizers soon. I think the $150 prices were the "last grab" by people who know their days as the energy source of choice...are numbered.

James Raider

December 5, 2008 03:16 AM

The American economy rests on the back of the American worker and consumer. Taxpayers own the government and currency is only a tool enabling commerce.

Get it working for you, not against you.

http://pacificgatepost.blogspot.com/2008/12/revising-government-relationship-to.html

PNW Trojan

December 5, 2008 11:42 AM

HOW ELSE, did Exxon make $40 BILLION in profits? Those 'old' wells are genuine GOLD MINES...no cost, just PURE, UNBRIDLED PROFIT!

Clifford J. Wirth, Ph.D.

December 5, 2008 10:45 PM

According to most independent studies, global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time demand will increase 9%.

No one can reverse this trend, nor can we conserve our way out of this catastrophe. Because the demand for oil is so high, it will always exceed production levels; thus oil depletion will continue steadily until all recoverable oil is extracted.

Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The Energy Watch Group (funded by the German Parliament) concludes in a current report titled: “Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:”

"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."

http://www.globaliamagazine.com/?id=482

We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel trucks for maintenance of bridges, cleaning culverts to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables, all from far away. With the highways out, there will be no food coming in from "outside," and without the power grid virtually nothing works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated systems.

This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

I used to live in NH-USA, but moved to a sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? Email: clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207. http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/

jay cresswelll

December 6, 2008 04:37 AM

You say: "It has announced 2 million barrels per day in cuts"
Get your facts right, the cut was 1.5 mm bpd; it was preceeded by AN INCREASE.

Tez

December 6, 2008 09:48 AM

The old wells are producing at their capacities still, while oil is already priced in for an incredible drop in demand. Oil prices went up because the oil producers could not meet the demand and the demand hasn't really gone down but it is priced in. The lower the price of oil goes, the higher its future price will likely be as newer wells start shutting down and the capacity is faltering.

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