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OPEC to Hold Yet Another Meeting--in Cairo

Posted by: Stanley Reed on November 14

If you meet enough times, maybe the sky—or in this case the oil price—will stop falling. That seems to be the principle on which OPEC is operating. According to news reports, the producers’ club will hold a meeting in Cairo on Nov. 29, broadening a previously scheduled gathering of Arab oil ministers. Arab oil ministers conferences rarely produce anything of substance, but a widened Cairo confab would likely issue new announcements of cuts—perhaps 1 million barrels per day or more. OPEC has not formally announced the meeting.

This meeting, if it happens, will come only a month after OPEC held an emergency meeting in Vienna and announced 1.5 million barrel per day in cuts. There are signs that those cuts are being at least partially implemented. It will also be only two weeks before yet another scheduled meeting in Algeria on Dec. 17.

OPEC, which was on snooze control for years during the price rises, is trying to show it is waking up and actively managing the markets. But so far, the markets haven’t been impressed. Battered by an ever more horrendous world economy, prices have fallen by about 60% since the $147 per barrel mid-July peak. Oil continued its dive this week, going through $55 per barrel for U.S. light crude on Nov. 13. Word of OPEC’s new plans gave a brief lift, with prices at $56 per barrel midday on Nov. 14. But downward pressure remains strong.

It's no secret why prices are falling. With the global economy imploding, demand is disappearing. Wood Mackenzie, the Edinburgh-based industry consultants, are now forecasting an actual decline in demand for 2009--the first since 1983. John Waterlow, an analyst with the group, is expecting oil demand actually to fall in 2009--by 250,000 barrels per day--for the first time since 1983 as the world economic slowdown and the lingering effects of high prices crimp consumption.

At the same time, supply is expected to rise only slightly, by about 100,000 barrels per day, as oil companies pare back spending and struggle to find financing. Faced with such numbers, OPEC thinks it has no choice but to cut back and often to try to keep up with the fall in demand.

In September, OPEC officials seemed to be aiming for a price of somewhere between $80 to $100 a barrel, depending on whether they were hardliners such as Iranians or Venezuelans or of the more pragmatic Arab Gulf state persuasion. Now they are talking of hopes to salvage things at around $70 per barrel.

If there is a bright spot for OPEC, it is that the markets don't seem to believe that low prices are here to stay. The forward price for oil five years out remains in $80 per barrel range, probably reflecting market participants' belief that supplies will be tight when the world economy recovers. But until then OPEC is going to struggle to keep prices from heading into the dreaded $30s-$40s per barrel range.

In fact, in some respects the OPEC countries are already there. The OPEC basket price, which more closely reflects what OPEC countries are receiving than the more commonly quoted U.S. light crude price, was actually $47.73 per barrel for Nov. 13.

Reader Comments

John T. Pendleton

November 14, 2008 04:24 PM

What better reason for the USA to bring more of our own petroleum on line than to rival these folks' potential grip on us!

Chuck Gaffney

November 14, 2008 05:09 PM

Drop like a rock and keep dropping! The global economy will only recover if home prices get to a point where new buyers can actually buy and when gas prices drop to $30 a barrel. Back in 2002, gas was $.89/gal and that's where we need to be. Also, no matter how much oil drops we must not forget how we were all robbed and we should drop this addiction and change to better fuels. Let OPEC have as many meetings as they want. We all don't want their product anymore!

James Mason

November 14, 2008 05:51 PM

Good idea Chuck. I suggest you buy a bicycle and start pedalling furiously.

Stefan

November 14, 2008 06:10 PM

Let's see, when the prices went out of control, they were dragging their feet, telling us...there is nothing wrong with supply, it's your speculators that are at fault.

Now the exact opposite is happening, and they are having emergency meeting after emergency meeting as the prices are falling, they're trying to manipulate the market.

I cannot wait till we are free of these clowns. Then what will they do? Where will the money that all these Saudi princes need for their lavish lifestyles come from?

Robert Stinnett

November 14, 2008 06:20 PM

True OPEC. Forget about the world, let's make sure our pockets are stuffed. They can meet all they want and it won't stop this slide. They haven't a clue as to how the market works.

dw

November 14, 2008 06:36 PM

I wonder if they have figured out how to raise prices when demand is dying off?

D Jackson

November 14, 2008 06:55 PM

Why do people always post comments that are not true? Go here to see what the Department of Energy had for the price of unleaded in 2002. It was well above .89 cents. http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mg_tco_p5w.htm

It'd be nice to have crude oil at $30.00, but that won't happen. We're likely to see the high 40s but you know those OPEC countries that don't like us enjoyed the $100 plus prices in the spring and summer. They'll cut production until they drive prices up from this level. They won't be happy until that happens.

Chuch is right on one thing, we need more wind, solar, and nukes in the future.

Dennis

November 14, 2008 08:34 PM

What would happen if we took our own oil off the common market? Why are we supporting countries that are already getting billions of our dollars in aid? Are we the dumbest country on the planet or what? They are turning our money into bullets that are killing our guys!

David Jefferson

November 14, 2008 08:42 PM

@John T Pendleton:

Using American crude oil may seem like a good idea right now, but you have failed to consider the facts:

-Using US crude oil would only prolong an existing problem. This doesn't help us with a clean energy solution, which we should really be putting our resources into.

-It would take ten years for us to be able to produce more oil from US soil--predominately from Alaska. In that ten years, oil could approach $200 a barrel--or more. Just consider what happened in the last ten years with oil prices.

I hate to be pessimistic, but I doubt oil prices will continue to fall at the rates we've seen since the fall.

America should put its resources into the development of clean energy sources instead of relying on last-century fossil fuels. Wind and solar would not be difficult to implement into the United States. This kind of solution is the only thing that will rob OPEC of their biggest customers.

I hope that Barack Obama will implement these clean energy solutions instead of reverting to the old standard of crude oil, natural gas, and coal. I do not think that it should even be considered that America should continue getting its energy the way it has for the past hundred years.

bruce parr

November 15, 2008 01:24 PM

More than half the world's population are now urban dwellers. A tipping point has been reached on this planet. "It's the economy, stupid" is as true as it ever was. A full government commitment to wind and solar will enable the economy to lift dramatically for the next 30 years as new technologies and manufacturing come on line. The way to beat depression is for everyone to have a job. Early and full commitment to wind and solar will do just that for 30 years.

The American economy has traditionally been built on roads, railways, and wars. People are tired of winning wars without winning peace, and everyone knows we can't go on using the same means of transport as we have without destroying the planet. With a serious government kickstart, America can fight its way out of depression and climate change at the same time. Am I dreaming or does this sound like a good idea?

Sjaak Blaauw

November 15, 2008 02:32 PM

We furiously need to bring alternative energy on line. Doesn't matter how low oil will go: We need to get independent from the oil sharks, uh, sheiks.

joe lee

November 15, 2008 05:33 PM

OPEC can kiss their sweet monies good bye because crude price is going and going down. Speaking of Chavez, he is hurting. Chavez needs money to influence other countries. Now that Chavez is running out of monies, he is so desperate. So who is the devil now? ha ha ha ha

Joeseph Bloe

November 15, 2008 10:30 PM

The US governemnt is doing the same thing that it did after the oil prices fell. Everyone in the country was crying for alternitive fuels, but when oil prices fell the government left all of the people who had invested in alternitive energy high and dry. So, the industry dried up teh same as it will again. It will be another 20 years before we will see the kind of private money being invested into alternitive energy as we have seen in the last 5 years. People are losing their shirts because they believed the government when they said that they would support the industry this time. The American people wont care until the price of a gallon of gas gets to $5, then they will say why are we still giving these terrorist this much money... We only have ourselves to blame for our troubles.

Realistic

November 16, 2008 02:27 AM

To all of you guys: Wake up!

Oil prices will not be falling forever...It is bound to recover, and maybe sooner than you expect...Supply will be tightend by OPEC and by the low investment in all upstream projects, and even with lower demand we will see demand outstripping supply...

Guess: 2009 average price will be $90/bbl.

Sam

November 16, 2008 04:41 PM

yup use solar energy while the Sun still last, it has about 5 billions years left before it will explode :D
and i believe with new technology, mass producing solar energy related product will not be a problem.

Tripp

November 16, 2008 05:04 PM

It's awesome that oil is dropping like it is. Hell, too many people can't pay their other bills because of being gouged so much. But the greedy oil ravens don't give a crap about that. They could seriously care less. It's screwed up thinking on their part. "Hmmm...if no one can buy oil because I've ripped them off of their last penny...what will I do?" That never seems to enter their minds.

Steady too

November 18, 2008 11:15 AM

I find it interesting when I see comments that say developing our own oil supplies won't be available for 5 - 10 years, and therefore we shouldn't even start. Is that stupid or what? In the end, 5 or 10 years from now, as we are developing alternative sources of energy which I hope we do, we will still be saying why start developing our sources of oil supplies, it will take us 5 - 10 years, take your pick - now or then. In the meantime, we still get to pay those countries furnishing oil to us whatever the market will bear. Come on folks, we need to do both at the same time. There will still be a need for some sort of oil supply, probably forever so why pay the foreigners for theirs when we have some right here. In the meantime, we start developing alternative sources of energy, it will help our employment picture and get us off depleting sources. At the same time, we open up and pursue our own oil resources to wean us off as much as possible the money we are sending overseas.

SM

November 18, 2008 04:24 PM

Chuck, you are talking out both sides of your mouth. The only time we really started reducing consumption (prior to the economic meltdown) was when the price went sky high. If the price is low, we keep using, and remain addicted.

ND

November 26, 2008 02:28 AM

I have read a lot of comments here am as an Oil State employee I can tell OPEC does look out after the world economy especially when most of the OPEC member are developing countries. There are many issues which involve oil prices which many people who made comments here should know. Of course the article is about the OPEC meeting but is funny I never have read an article questioning prices for the other types of the crude oil which are consumed and are above OPEC. About alternative energy I still have hope that it will be able to become a fact and not a myth since the dark gold has caused so many problems to the world. As for the prices I agree this is only a bounce that is happening the barrel shall not go any lower this is only temporary because of the recession happening. The only way this barrel goes down is to have an alternative, competitive, cheap and environmental energy.

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