April 15, 2010

Holding Steady

The Optimism Meter held steady at 55 on April 13, the same level as one week earlier, as a slight improvement in the outlook for housing made up for a drop in stock market enthusiasm. Nineteen percent of Americans believe that the stock market will decline in value over the next 12 months.

Each of the charts that follow measures one of the four different components of the Optimism Meter: economic growth, jobs, equity markets, and real estate. Like the Optimism Meter, the components appear on a scale of 0 to 100, with 100 representing the highest level of optimism.

ECONOMIC GROWTH: HERE TO STAY?

HIGHLIGHT: Bloomberg’s survey of 57 economists estimates that U.S. gross domestic product will expand by 3% a year in both 2010 and 2011. Thirty-five percent of respondents think the economy is getting worse, and only 26% see improvement ahead.

JOBS: SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT

HIGHLIGHT: Forty-seven percent of individuals say that if they lost their job, it would be very hard to find a new one that paid as much. That’s an improvement from 48% one week earlier. Economists predict that unemployment will average 9% in 2011, down from an average 9.6% in 2010.

EQUITY MARKETS: A LOT LESS RISKY

HIGHLIGHT: The volatility of the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index continued its year-to-date decline over the past week. Just 19% of individuals expect the stock market to fall over the next 12 months.

REAL ESTATE: NO PICK-UP YET

HIGHLIGHT: Sixty-five percent of YouGov survey respondents say they believe their homes won’t lose value over the next year. Twenty-four percent think real estate has yet to hit a bottom.