The Job Outlook Improves Slightly

Posted by: on March 25, 2010

The Optimism Meter clocked in at 54 on Mar. 23, up from 45 one month earlier, as the U.S. employment picture continued to improve. The average estimated unemployment rate for 2010 is now 9.6%, down from 9.8% in late February, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Each of the charts that follow measures one of the four different components of the Optimism Meter: economic growth, jobs, equity markets, and real estate. Like the Optimism Meter, the components appear on a scale of 0 to 100, with 100 representing the highest level of optimism.

ECONOMIC GROWTH: IS THIS RECOVERY SUSTAINABLE?


HIGHLIGHT: Bloomberg’s survey of 57 economists estimates that U.S. gross domestic product will expand by 3% a year in both 2010 and 2011. Forty-one percent of respondents think the economy is getting worse and only 23% see improvement ahead.

JOBS: BETTER THAN BEFORE


HIGHLIGHT: Forty-seven percent of individuals say that if they lost their job, it would be very hard to find a new one that paid as much. That’s compared to 49% one month earlier. Economists predict that unemployment will average 9% in 2011, down from an average 9.6% in 2010.

EQUITY MARKETS: A LOT LESS RISKY

HIGHLIGHT: The volatility of the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index continued its year-to-date decline over the past week. Just 22% of individuals expect the stock market to fall over the next 12 months.

REAL ESTATE: MOST SAY THE BOTTOM IS BEHIND US

HIGHLIGHT: Sixty-two percent of YouGov survey respondents said that they believed their homes wouldn’t lose value over the next year. Twenty-eight percent think real estate has yet to hit a bottom.