Taking Bets on a Palin Exit

Posted by: Dan Beucke on September 02

By Joseph Weber
Gamblers who think Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will be dropped from the vice-presidential line on the Republican ticket have a place to put their money on the line now. Intrade, the nine-year-old Dublin-based online prediction market where bettors can wager on anything from hurricanes to Emmy award candidates, has set up a market called “Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee.”

By late afternoon in Ireland, the market had attracted only a small number of bidders who snapped up about 319 "contracts." They gave the chance of her withdrawal at 10-12%. Bettors wager $10 bets.

Though just tapped, Palin is already taking hits for some of the baggage she'll bring to the job. The New York Times, for instance, has played up her 17-year-old daughter's pregnancy, her past support of a party that has backed secession for Alaska, and her husband's drunken-driving charge 22 years ago.

Reader Comments

John

September 2, 2008 02:04 PM

The drunk driving charge belongs to Sarah's husband, NOT Sarah.

Funny how some journalists just can't help themselves from stirring the pot...

Mensa Dude

September 2, 2008 03:06 PM

These are issues? How about something juicy, like driving off of a bridge and killing a campaign volunteer. Or how about sexual harassment of a White House intern? The DUI is unfortunate; but it was not hers and it was 22 years ago. Coincidentally, a revelation that did not hurt W become elected President. I do believe Americans are more realistic and understanding regarding candidate imperfections than rags like the condescending NY Times believe they are.Can we move on to the real issues, Mr. Media?

dunce dude

September 2, 2008 03:26 PM

17 year-old pregnant daughter? The GOP really is about family values.

Squeezebox

September 2, 2008 03:57 PM

Mensa Dude, how about using her position as governmor to get her ex-brother-in-law fired from the state police? Palin's looking like bad news, and she hasn't even been campaigning for a week.

BusinessWeek writer Joseph Weber

September 2, 2008 04:01 PM

MD,
In your view, should the press report some of the smudges on Palin's escutcheon, as it has, or not? Is it condescending to do so, or merely thorough? Will voters discount such tarnishes, if they are truly unimportant or irrelevant?

Trader Joe

September 3, 2008 12:51 AM

Update on the Palin Ouster market at Intrade

13% probability she is dropped by election day

Over 3000 trades / predictions

sing

September 3, 2008 01:23 AM

Would you hire someone for any job, let alone the VP of the US, after meeting them once? That's the real story here surely. Mccain couldn't run a small business for sure with that attitude, why on earth would you vote him in to run a country?

Mooseburger

September 3, 2008 04:36 AM

I Can see it now....John McCain, if he were to be President, making high level important picks for Supreme court, FDA, Surgeon General, or even a replacement for General Petraus. He's thinking "The Conservative base wants me to pick a strong conservative, and I really want a moderate, but damn it, I'm a Maverick! I would like to show the people that I am going to Govern as a moderate, but the Conservative Christian Right will go into rebellion if I do. Screw 'em all. I am the maverick, and I will pick who I want, use my gut just like good ole George Bush always did. I can look at someone for a few minutes and then I know if they are my Soulmate or not." Pretty scary stuff folks, His first big and most important decision of his campaign for President and we get someone so far off the radar that nobody really knows much at all about her. She is the exact opposite of everything the McCain campaign has been about up until now. This is short term political theatrics, but also all too real. I wonder if John McCain has ever met Harriet Myers.....I really believe that his decision to potentially entrust our Nation to a first class national rookie should something , God forbid, Happen to him is not putting Country First, it is a lame attempt to put John McCain first. How in the world can we ever have confidence in his ability to choose well for our country if this choice is an example of what we might expect from John McCain?

Ron

September 3, 2008 09:24 AM

HE SHOOTS >>>>> HE SCORES..... Levi Johnston to become new American Sports Embassador to the world. In other news.... we are sorry to report that President McCain has suffered a heart failure and Vice President Palin will become interim Hockey mom.......

Lisa

September 3, 2008 09:34 AM

Palin exemplifies the abuse of power, now wonder she's the darling of the GOP

DerbyDude

September 3, 2008 11:26 AM

I have a theory. (DNC)OHB operatives are emailing to the mainstream media and liberal whacko bloggers story line hits on Palin with a meager modicum of info to support the story line. How else can one begin to fathom the feeding frenzy and cheap shots being taken? Palin is an incredible pick and the absolute liberal media panic/furor surely bears that out for any thinking American.

Scott

September 3, 2008 02:16 PM

She won't be dropped. Look at what happened when Mcgovern dropped Eagleton. He's stuck with this albatross. the news can only grow worse in the days after the Convention.

John

September 5, 2008 07:55 PM

Many thought Palin would lose the Alaska governors race, too. There's been a quote going around "Underestimate her at your own peril." Great warning. You'll see, the more she gets out there and starts talking, the more voters she'll attract. She's a very hard working, humble, what you see is what you get type of gal. I've met her many times. No nonsense, great leader. You will see as this unfolds.

Thank you for your interest. This blog is no longer active.

 

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