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To handicap the upcoming e-tail Xmas, here's what to watch for: Virus or Hacker Attack: Keep tabs on the news of e-mail or Internet security breaches. A spate of them in the fall -- or worse, one really big, news-making event, along the lines of the "I Love You" virus that hit earlier this year -- and e-tailers are in for trouble. Despite the industry's best efforts, security remains a big concern for the Internet shopper. That's especially true of the beginner Net shopper. What's more, a hack attack could encourage employers to crack down on the widespread use of company computers for Net shopping. October is the month to watch. One big Halloween hacker could give this industry a fatal scare. TV Ads: Monitor the airwaves for signs of the slow, steady build up of advertising heading into the holiday shopping season. By Thanksgiving, it should be omnipresent if e-tailers are going to get a big Christmas payoff. If the Internet merchants take Wall Street's advice and swear off TV this year, they'll regret it. Certainly, I'm not in favor of the wasteful TV ad spending that went on last year. Much of it was expensive and essentially worthless. (Quick -- name three dot.coms that advertised on the Super Bowl. See what I mean? ) But to stay off TV during Christmas is a mistake. Consumers are used to taking their cues from TV ads during the fall and winter shopping season. E-tailers need to be there to get their share. Some Internet merchants are already on that path. eToys plans to be "similarly aggressive" this year in holiday ad spending, says CEO Toby Lenk. "TV is still the best way to tell a story to a lot of people," he says. Discounting: Watch for signs of price-cutting this fall. In the next three to four weeks, retailers that are closely tied to the back-to-school shopping season will start tallying their figures. If the season is looking strong, the discounting will be minimal. If all is not going well, the %-off signs will pop up like dandelions as store managers hustle to unload stale merchandise. Discounting is a trend that hurts all retailers, real or virtual. But should a really nasty price war break out, the first victims will be the e-tailers. They will be the merchants least able to afford the squeeze on margins. Wall Street and other financial backers will not tolerate another season in which e-tailers give away the goods. All that said, there is at least one indicator retailers and e-tailers share: the weather. Each channel, however, will need to pray for a different forecast. While mall tenants and downtown shops will hope for crisp, clear fall days and a nice dusting of flurries come December, e-tailers must hope for the worst. Rain, sleet, ice, slush, nasty raw wet weather, especially on the evenings and weekends. No really big snowstorms (nothing that would hinder, say, the UPS man). But grim, gray weather, the kind that makes a consumer say, "Oh heck, I'll just order it online," will give e-tailers a reason to be jolly. Neuborne covers Marketing for Business Week in New York. Have a question or a comment? Let her know at ellen_neuborne@ebiz.businessweek.com. |
