Good riddance, 2001! You were a disaster for both job-seeking execs and the headhunters who place them. True, percentage-wise, fewer managers than working grunts are pounding the pavement today. The unemployment rate for people who supervise others is 2.9%, vs. 5.8% for the overall U.S. workforce. The bad news is that in 2001, managers got sacked at a faster rate than any other type of employee: Their jobless rate has climbed 71% since last December, vs. only 45% for peons, according to the Labor Dept.
The big question is whether managers and MBAs will fare any better this year. From January through November of last year, mass corporate layoffs produced 2.2 million casualties, more than a good-size war. Joseph McCool, editor of Executive Recruiter News, a monthly newsletter published by recruiting industry researcher Kennedy Information, believes things will probably improve. According to informal polling by McCool's organization, 50% of several dozen companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 believe they'll do more hiring this year than in 2001.
Don't pop open the Moët just yet: The implication is that the other 50% may not add staff. Contrast that with the boom years of the late '90s, when 75% to 85% of such companies told McCool they would be hiring. "This year will be more a return to normal," he says. "Companies are going to continue to be very selective" about hiring.
To get a sense of just how selective, BusinessWeek Online writers Eric Wahlgren and Mica Schneider asked a number of career experts to make educated guesses about the outlook for 2002. According to them, executive demand will be strongest for managers who know how to use technology to cut costs as well as for those who can bring in revenue. And in the wake of September 11, execs who can oversee corporate security can expect a friendly reception.
Few experts they spoke with are optimistic about the overall outlook for executive hiring in 2002. Still, many maintain that jobs will be available for managers who skillfully market themselves. The edited excerpts of their comments presented here form Part Two (here's Part One) of BusinessWeek Online's utterly unscientific second annual career outlook survey:
Jo Bennett, a partner at executive search firm Battalia Winston in New York
Jo Bennett
I think hiring in 2002 is going to be strongest for finance jobs, such as chief financial officer and comptroller -- titles like that. When you're in tough times, chief execs want to know what their options are, so the financial positions rise to power.
The other area where there is going to be opportunity is in health care, an industry that still seems to be doing well. I think it will need all kinds of people across the board. The pharmaceutical industry should still be all right: It tends to take a longer view of the world, so is not as quick to lay off. I think professional services -- such as management consulting -- is still going to be slow.
Nonprofits normally would be fairly strong, since they aren't as much affected by what's going on in the economy. But this year, they are affected, because of what happened on September 11. They are very much short in terms of fund-raising. If there is a demand for anybody in that business, it's going to be development people.
I wish I could give you better news. For management jobs, it's going to be a little bleak, and I don't know when it's going to turn around.
Richard A. Shafer, associate dean for corporate relations, and director of career service at the Johnson School of Management, Cornell University
Richard Shafer
Executive search firms tell us that this year they'll be hiring for experience, not just for an MBA. They want your experience to translate into results in their companies. So it'll be a difficult job market for MBAs who are doing career switches. These students don't like to hear it, but the best advice for them currently is to build on the [professional] base that they've got -- return to those fields. The second thing you're seeing is that companies need people who can be very agile, who can quickly assess situations and get results tomorrow. It's a different dimension -- companies are facing a lot [of situations] they haven't seen before.
Health care, pharmaceutical, biotech, and medical devices are industries that should do a lot of hiring in 2002. The pharma companies still have a lot going on. And the biotechs, as they get larger, are interested in our MBAs. Energy is another area where a lot is going on, and companies are looking for MBAs. Financial services and investment banking are still active, but only half as active as in past years.
As the year plays out, you'll see the technology companies begin to hire, such as Hewlett-Packard and Microsoft. The consulting firms will come back, too. They do well at the backside of a recession, because companies are reluctant to hire, so they bring in consultants to get some work done. Consumer-brand companies have remained strong on the hiring front, though they're hiring a bit less actively than last year.
Job seekers should hope for the best, but plan for the worst. By December of 2002, there will be more jobs. But things won't be back to the way they were. An MBA is still a hell of a good bet. But there are a ton of MBAs out there trying to get reabsorbed into the job market.
David Parker, founder of executive search firm D.P. Parker & Assoc. in Wellesley, Mass.
David Parker
I see growth in several areas, including biotech/pharmaceuticals, security systems, energy, and information technology. Biotech/biopharmaceuticals will remain strong, with an emphasis on development as new drugs move through the clinical trial phase toward FDA approval. Positions such as vice-presidents and directors of regulatory affairs, and jobs in data management/statistics, project management, and medical writing will be available.
As a result of the September 11 terrorist attacks, there is an increase in demand for technology solutions -- both hardware and software -- that relate to all types of security systems. Professionals with security related experience are in demand.
Nontechnical positions will also be available. Half of the airports in the country will be looking for directors of security. There will be demand for project managers who can deliver security projects in a timely manner. Some of the action will take place around Washington, D.C., at government contractors who install security systems. In information technology, there is some strength in demand at the vice-president, information technology/chief information officer level.
With continued unrest in the Middle East, there is also a strong desire to reduce the need for importing oil. New technology solutions to long-standing energy problems are gaining attention, including solar, nuclear, fuel cells, power grids, and natural gas [research on converting natural gas to liquid fuel continues]. Available jobs would be research & development management positions. In these jobs, you would have to have advanced degrees in chemical engineering, chemistry, or nuclear engineering.
Bobbi Moss, vice-president at executive search firm Management Recruiters International in Scottsdale, Ariz.
Bobbi Moss
The industries that continue to show positive growth are construction, health care, medical devices, and pharmaceuticals. Those are really the main places for hiring in 2002.
Those industries and others are going to be looking for software engineers and network administrators. Medical and dental professionals -- and I don't necessarily mean doctors and dentists, although there will be demand for those -- are going to be looking for support people such as business managers who understand how to run a medical practice.
In pharmaceuticals, sales and sales management will be important. With all that's going on in biotech, I think there will be more opportunities for scientists with advanced degrees.
And there will most definitely be a need for sales professionals. There also continue to be positions available in the accounting and tax professions. In those areas, the more specialized you are, the better off you are.
Jeff Christian, CEO and chairman of executive search firm Christian & Timbers in Cleveland
Jeff Christian
With changes in the managed-care and health-care industries in areas such as reimbursement, there will be a need for business managers and professionals. Hospitals and other health-care organizations, as they get bigger and bigger, need to be run more like businesses. Doctors are moving out of the way and putting business people in place to run health-care operations. People who can run a strong organization, know how to hire people, and can bring dollars in will be able to find jobs in this area. We are going see the building of more nursing homes and other care organizations.
We will also see demand for jobs in the life sciences, such as biotech. We're all looking to stay alive longer.
I think there will also be opportunities in the security sector for directors of security and other managerial positions. This will become a permanent need given the way the world has gone. We will also see certain opportunities in technology, particularly in the area of network and Internet security.
Also big will be the leveraged-buyout area. People who have investment-banking backgrounds and people who have experience raising large sums will be in demand. There will be a need for not only smart financial engineers but also for people with good operations skills.
Craig Tysdal, chief executive officer, NetSolve in Austin, Tex.
Craig Tysdal
One area that's important now is security. Every chief information officer wants world-class ways to keep networks performing well -- and to keep them secure. They're looking for staff at every level -- from the lowest to the highest, including corporate privacy and chief data security officers. That clearly is a wave.
James Foy, a partner in Foy Schneid & Daniel, a retained search firm based in New York and Connecticut
We're getting a lot of mixed reactions from our clients for 2002. Aside from defense contracting, where we don't have clients, I can't pinpoint any particular industry that will be robust.
Hiring will begin again in the second and third quarters of 2002, but it won't be near the level it was in the 1990s. That's the current indication, but it's very tentative. Some companies that have downsized will probably bring some of their [cut] positions back, but in terms of bringing in new departments, and additions to staff, we will see slower growth than in normal economic times.
Job candidates will have to be patient. Additionally, they'll have to consider job opportunities that they might not have wanted in the past. Their expectations in terms of compensation may have to be lowered, too: Companies that will be hiring know that there's a glut of candidates -- that it's a buyer's market. An MBA absolutely helps a candidate. It's almost a prerequisite at the higher job levels, and has been for years.
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