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During the past 20 years, the author has watch China move from being a developing country into an industrial superpower
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Get Four
|  | OCTOBER 9, 2004
By Richard S. Dunham Winner Take All in Arizona? The upcoming, third and final debate has the potential to anoint either contender as the next President. It's that important Here's another first for the roller-coaster campaign of 2004: Never before have the first two Presidential debates provided such pivotal moments for each of the major candidates. The first debate at the University of Miami was a do-or-die moment for Democrat John Kerry. His strong performance -- clearly superior to that of his occasionally halting, seemingly rattled opponent -- reshaped the race and erased President Bush's month-long lead in the polls. The second showdown, a high-octane clash at Washington University in St. Louis on Oct. 8, did little to change opinions. The incumbent desperately needed to bounce back from his Florida flailing -- and he did (see BW Online, 10/9/04, "Bush Gets Back in Gear"). TIPPING POINT? Of course, Bush backers across the nation thought their guy won, and Kerry supporters were equally sure that the Massachusetts senator scored big. But a dwindling undecided block -- ready to fire Bush, but not ready to hire Kerry -- is still there for the taking. That raises the stakes for the third and final debate, which could well become a winner-takes-all showdown. If the Oct. 13 encounter in Tempe, Ariz., has a convincing victor, the election could be all but decided. But if neither candidate clearly prevails in the minds of the American public, the contest for the White House is likely to go down to the wire. Ready for a replay of 2000 anyone? Post-debate polling by Gallup for CNN and USA Today found that Kerry's image with the public improved sharply after each debate. Bush neither gained nor lost ground in the first contest, and he had a slightly smaller image improvement than Kerry in Debate No. 2. SILVER TONGUE. After two bruising encounters, White House operatives are coming away with a great deal of respect for the rhetorical abilities of the Democratic nominee. "Kerry is a skilled debater, he really is," marveled Dan Bartlett, White House communications director. "He has been doing it all his life." In dissecting the rivals' debate techniques, Bartlett noted that Kerry tries to "throw everything [at you] and see what sticks." Bush, he said, can be "very passionate and indignant at times" but exudes confidence and "a warm personality." After watching the televised clashes, polls show Americans see Bush as a stronger leader and Kerry as a more articulate person, but a Marist poll finds voters evenly split on which candidate is more likeable or has better command of the issues. RACE AGAINST TIME. The Kerry campaign is hoping that the public breaks its way after the third debate. "This isn't an empathy contest," says Kerry strategist Joe Lockhart. "The American public wants a President who can swagger and chew gum at the same time." The Bush team is trying to build up expectations that the pressure is on Kerry to win big in Tempe. "John Kerry is behind the eight ball, with us with a 2- to 3-point lead," says top Bush campaign strategist Matthew Dowd. "John Kerry is going to have to do something...to take the lead." That's true, to a point. But the President faces as much pressure to prevail at Arizona State University and put away the pesky challenger. History says voters who are undecided right up until the end of a contest pitting a sitting President against a challenger usually vote against the incumbent. So the President wants to make sure they decide to vote for him by the time he leaves the Grand Canyon State.  Dunham is Washington Outlook editor for BusinessWeek Get BusinessWeek directly on your desktop with our RSS feeds.  Add BusinessWeek news to your Web site with our headline feed. Click to buy an e-print or reprint of a BusinessWeek or BusinessWeek Online story or video. To subscribe online to BusinessWeek magazine, please click here. Learn more, go to the BusinessWeekOnline home page  | | |
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