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OCTOBER 9, 2000

NEWS ANALYSIS

The Fight for the Electoral College (Part Five)
While Bush has managed to snare four Southern battle zones, Gore is extending his electoral lead

 
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Sept. 14: Part One

Sept. 19: Part Two

Sept. 26: Part Three

Oct. 2: Part Four

Oct. 9: Part Five

Oct. 16: Part Six

Oct. 23: Part Seven

Oct. 30: Part Eight

Nov. 6: Part Nine

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With the Presidential election less than a month away, the contours of the electoral map are beginning to take shape. Only five states remain toss-ups, and Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore are both focused on a dozen closely contested states.

In this fifth look at the Electoral College standings, as of Oct. 9, Business Week Online charts the ebb and flow of the electoral battle in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. White House Correspondent Richard S. Dunham will continue to provide weekly updates of the state-of-the-state races on the basis of new statewide polls and independent reporting.

Although most national polls show the Vice-President with a narrow lead, Gore holds a decisive advantage in the Electoral College. To win, a candidate must carry at least 270 of the 538 electoral votes. Gore now leads in 22 states (and the District of Columbia) accounting for 258 electoral votes. At this point, Bush has a clear edge in 23 states with 209 electoral votes. Five states with 71 electoral votes are still toss ups: Florida, Missouri, Arkansas, Michigan, and Wisconsin.



The biggest change in the past week: Bush is finally pulling ahead in Southern battlegrounds, including Louisiana, Kentucky, and Georgia. And he remains competitive in the home states of President Clinton and his Veep, Arkansas and Tennessee. The big problem for Bush: He has been forced to fight hard, wasting precious time and money, to win Florida, where his brother Jeb is governor and his father won in 1988 and 1992.

Gore is solidifying his hold on industrial swing states such as Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. The Vice-President has locked up 167 electoral votes, while Bush is assured of 138. Gore also leads in the closely contested states: 109 electoral votes are leaning to Gore, 71 are leaning to Bush. For the GOP nominee, a strong performance in the remaining debates is essential to his chances in the Electoral College.


By Richard S. Dunham in Washington
 Edited by Douglas Harbrecht
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