A SURPRISE WINNER IN THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS: FAST-TRACK

The stunning Democratic pick-up of five House seats on Nov. 3 packs another potential surprise: It makes passage of free trade legislation far more likely next year. Already, the unexpected Democratic win has spurred Clinton Administration officials to begin formulating plans in earnest to bring a new "fast track" trade bill to a vote next year.

The measure, which was the Administration's second most important economic priority after securing $17.9 billion in IMF funding, was killed on Sept. 25 in the House by a vote of 243 to 180. The GOP-written bill garnered little support among Democrats, who felt it didn't address their concerns for negotiating labor rights and environmental protections in trade deals. But the new makeup of the House may force the GOP next year to include clauses protecting labor rights and the environment as a way to reach a deal. That may attract enough Democratic votes for passage.

The prospects for fast track legislation also improved when several GOP opponents of fast track lost their races. In the Senate, Republicans Alfonse D'Amato of New York and Lauch Faircloth of North Carolina, who both cast "no" votes in a procedural test of fast track in 1997, lost bids for re-election.

Four GOP House members who voted against fast track last September also lost in races to move over to the Senate: Bob Inglis of South Carolina, Mark Neumann of Wisconsin, Linda Smith of Washington, and John Ensign of Nevada. Only one, Representative Michael Crapo (R-Idaho), won in his Senate bid. But Senate passage of fast-track won't be in doubt if free trade proponents can only get the bill through the House. "The Republicans should have learned that there just isn't a market out there for them to bash free trade," said one Administration trade official.

President Clinton now hopes to win fast-track approval from Congress in advance of hosting 6,000 delegates from the World Trade Organization in December 1999. The third annual meeting of the fledgling organization will be held in the U.S. even if fast track isn't passed, but the Administration will argue that denying Clinton the legislation before the meeting would embarrass the White House. The Administration is considering Honolulu, Denver, Detroit, San Diego, Dallas, and Seattle as possible locations for the WTO pow wow. Previous WTO meetings were held in Singapore and Geneva.

The White House figures that, by naming specific trade deals in the legislation that can be achieved only with the aid of Presidential fast-track negotiating authority, it can seal the deal. Fast-track authority allows a yes or no vote on trade agreements without Congress being able to add amendments that might be objectionable to foreign governments. The WTO is scheduled to sponsor talks on agriculture and services next year.

The fast track bill will hold out the promise of a free trade deal with Chile, a hemispheric trade deal called the Free Trade Area of the Americas, and a wide-ranging series of trade talks among Asian and Pacific nations.

By Paul Magnusson in Washington