MARCH 3, 2003
WASHINGTON WATCH
By Richard S. Dunham
A Flooded Field of Dems | With Bush's popularity dropping, Democrats are jostling for position in the 2004 race. Here's an early handicapping of the contenders
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After despairing about their party's disastrous performance in the midterm election of 2002, Democrats are seeing the first faint signs of optimism for 2004. President Bush's popularity continues to fall from stratospheric heights, amid rising public concerns about his handling of the sour economy, Iraq, and North Korea. Indeed, a Feb. 25-26 Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll gave Bush a scant 42%-38% lead over a generic Democratic opponent in a hypothetical 2004 reelection matchup. That's a strong Anybody-but-Bush sentiment, and it represents a major shift from only a few months ago, when Bush held a huge 44%-21% advantage.
With a new sense that the first-term President might be vulnerable, Democrats are searching for a winner. "There's a real hunger," said Judy Reardon, former legal counsel to former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen, as she waited to hear from three would-be nominees at a Feb. 27 fund-raising dinner in Manchester, N.H. "More than in past races, people are looking at who has the potential to beat George Bush."
Who could it be? Already, nine candidates have announced their intention to seek the party's Presidential nod, and at least four more are mulling a run. Almost all of the candidates showed up for two early "cattle calls" in late February -- one at the Democratic National Committee winter meeting in Washington, the other in New Hampshire's largest city. And while the first ballot won't be cast for more than 10 months, early favorites are starting to emerge. Here are my first impressions of the Democratic field:
Massachusetts Senator John Kerry. He has captured the imagination of many Democratic Party leaders, and he's getting the best "buzz" from the purveyors of conventional wisdom (which is a doubled-edged sword). What do people like? He's articulate, he's handsome, he's a decorated war veteran, he's an expert on national-security issues, he's tech-friendly, and he's very, very wealthy (largely a result of his marriage to the widow of ketchup scion and former Senator John Heinz).
He's also a familiar face in the pivotal first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary, thanks to the proximity of the Boston media market to the Granite State. At this point, Kerry tops the polls in New Hampshire, though the latest national poll on the Dem contenders from Fox/Opinion Dynamics finds him running in third place. Many Republicans express glee at the prospect of running against the long-vanquished Michael Dukakis' former lieutenant governor.
Because of recent prostate-cancer surgery, Kerry missed the February look-'em-over events, so it's hard to say how he stacks up against his Democratic rivals as a speechifier. But there's no denying he has put together a talented staff and has an excellent "ground game" ready in the key early states.
Missouri Representative Richard Gephardt. The media elite would love to bury the former House Majority (and Minority) Leader, who failed in a 1988 attempt to capture the White House. "Yesterday's news," the pundits have proclaimed. "A proven loser," they assert. But reports of Gephardt's demise may be greatly exaggerated. He's clinging to first place in the new Fox poll, and he remains within striking distance of Kerry in New Hampshire.
Gephardt confounded the doomsayers with a fiery populist message at the DNC meeting. His speech -- which combined a caustic critique of Bushonomics, a hawkish foreign-policy message, and the most detailed list of new policy prescriptions -- brought the partisan crowd to its feet several times. The key for Gephardt is going to be Iowa caucuses on January 19, 2004. A next-door neighbor from Missouri, the son of a St. Louis milkman needs an early win in the Hawkeye State to prove that he's still a candidate with a future. Gephardt may have something to prove to many party activists and political correspondents, but it would be a mistake to write him off too quickly.
Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean. He's the rock star of 2003. Riding the wave of anti-war sentiment in the Democratic Party's base, he has borrowed a famous phrase from the late liberal icon Paul Wellstone and declared that he's the leader of "the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party." Like George McGovern in 1972, Dean is enlisting an army of volunteers -- from college kids to veteran activists -- to knock on doors, lick envelopes, and cheer the new hero of the New Left.
Dean, a medical doctor, is a political eclectic: He's far to the left on foreign policy issues, yet he is a staunch supporter of guns as well as gay rights, he favors a balanced budget, and he demands universal health insurance coverage. This could be a formula for a powerful political coalition -- or the seeds of political self-destruction.
Thus far, Dean has caught the fancy of many party activists. Gerald Sneison, a retired airline pilot from Durham, N.H., and his wife first met Dean at a house party last year. "Nobody had ever heard of him, including us," says Sneison. Now, they're convinced that the doctor has the prescription needed to fix the nation's ills.
Sneison isn't the only convert. Dean was enthusiastically received at both of the recent Democratic events. While he lags far behind in national polls (4% in the Fox poll, up from 2% in January), he's a definite comer.
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Copyright 2003, Bloomberg L.P.
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