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Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman. Al Gore's 2000 running mate is the mystery man of the 2004 race. His speech at the DNC was widely considered a dud, and he was overshadowed at the New Hampshire event by stem-winding orations by Dean and the Reverend Al Sharpton. The Fox poll showed him dropping from 29% to 15% in the past month as his name-recognition edge seems to be wearing off. He's running a weak fourth in New Hampshire.
Some Democrats suggest he's too conservative to win the nomination, and too bellicose to appeal to the party's dovish majority. From close-up observation, Lieberman definitely needs to overhaul his stump speech, which is long on clichés and criticism and short on his personal vision for the nation's future. Still, watching Lieberman press the flesh at New Hampshire's largest law firm on Feb. 28, it's clear that the veteran senator has plenty of charm and charisma with small groups. He's going to have to do better in front of large crowds if he's going to rebound.
North Carolina Senator John Edwards. Some Democratic activists see Edwards as the kind of centrist Southerner who can lead the party to victory next November. Manchester (N.H.) teacher Corey Doherty says Edwards "has a lot of Clinton's attributes, but he's also very devoted to his family." So why is he at a scant 6% in national polls and at 2% in one recent New Hampshire poll?
It may be his boyish looks (although he's 50 years old) and his lack of military experience. Edwards is terrific in a small-group setting, and he gives a good speech, but he won't win the nomination by being a respectable runner-up. Unless he finds that elusive "gravitas" and builds a better grassroots organization, he could end up as a favorite for the Veep slot rather than the top job.
The Reverend Al Sharpton. The veteran African-American activist has the best applause lines of all the Democratic candidates. He brought the New Hampshire crowd to its feet when he pointed out that the President -- a firm opponent of racial preferences -- had benefited from preferences and set-asides throughout his life. "In 2000, the Supreme Court set aside the whole election to make him President of the United States," the candidate told the roaring partisans.
Still, nobody except the candidate will predict victory. "Sharpton is a great orator," says a woman from Houston who recently saw him speak in New Hampshire. "He makes us think a lot." True, but can he win? "No."
Back in the Pack: • Former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun is the first African-American elected official to seek the Presidency since then-Representative Shirley Chisolm in 1972. But she elicited only polite applause at the DNC meeting and remains all-but-invisible in the early primary states thus far.
• Cleveland congressman Dennis Kucinich is challenging Dean for support among the party's ultraliberals. He's a proud liberal populist, a trade protectionist, and an anti-war crusader. But can he organize a national campaign?
• Florida Senator Bob Graham, recovering from heart surgery, recently became the ninth candidate in the field. On paper, he's a strong contender: centrist, respected, former Senate Intelligence Committee chairman, resident of a key swing state. But he's far, far behind the front-runners when it comes to organization and fund-raising.
More Presidential prospects are still considering their futures. Among them: former Colorado Senator Gary Hart, former NATO commander Wesley Clark, Connecticut Senator Christopher Dodd, and Delaware Senator Joseph Biden. As Lieberman joked at the $100-a-plate New Hampshire dinner, "Before long, we're going to have 100 candidates for the Democratic nomination." Or maybe it's an accurate prediction.
Dunham is a White House correspondent for BusinessWeek's Washington bureau. Follow his views every Monday in Washington Watch, only on BusinessWeek Online Edited by Douglas Harbrecht
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