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So what's it going to be? "Shock and awe" followed by quick capitulation? Or a long, hard slog in Iraq's barren sands and dangerous cities? Naturally, breathless TV commentators are all over the place as war coverage seesaws from the triumphalist to the somber. What to do amid this confusing chatter? Here's a handy guide to put the war in perspective for CNN addicts -- with apologies to Aaron Brown, Ted Koppel, Dan Rather, and anchorpeople everywhere...
Phase I: Dreamland. Yippee, we've opened the war with a cunning "decapitation" strike on the Iraqi leadership. It looks like Saddam Hussein and his evil sons, Oy-Vey and No-Way, are dead, pulverized in their Baghdad bunker. CIA recruiting stations at the nation's college campuses are overrun by volunteers, many former finance students and software engineers. Prepare to celebrate, America. Spring Break is no longer canceled!
Phase II: More Euphoria. Administration sources spread stories of a "leadership vacuum" in the Iraqi capital. How else to explain Iraqis' apparent fondness for taking long drives during intense bombardment of Baghdad targets?
Word comes that Iraq's oil fields are largely secured. U.S. troops, spearheaded by the 3rd Infantry Division, break the military version of the land-speed record with a rapid sprint North from Kuwait. TV reporters, heartened by scenes of desert vastness and the occasional encounter with Bedouin goat-herders, hint that the war could be over before the next commercial break. Relief washes over America with the realization that U.S. forces could be drinking Cokes in Baghdad cafes in a matter of days.
Phase III: Reality Check. We see the first coalition casualties. Patriot II missile batteries work too well -- as a British Tornado jet is downed by one over Kuwait. Administration officials backtrack on decapitation and now hint that Saddam may be injured but not dead.
More bad news. A surgical strike misses "Chemical Ali," a leading bad actor in Saddam's high command. Iraqi commanders must not be reading their e-mail from Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld -- few units are actually surrendering. TV and print correspondents report that liberated Iraqis who greet Allies with smiles and cigarettes quickly switch to scowls and curses as soon as the convoys leave their villages. Tell us again why we're doing this?
Phase IV: Period of Doubt. President Bush urges Americans to brace for a long, tough war. Inevitably, questions arise. How come the much-ballyhooed "shock and awe" bombing campaign isn't working better? Are we going to have to bomb our Turkish allies in the North next?
To complicate matters, the Saudis call for a "pause" in war to let Iraq refortify and hint they'll oppose a U.S.-led regime in Baghdad after the war. Friendly-fire casualties mount among the Alliance. A mood of pessimism descends on the battlefield as commentators discover that some Iraqis are actually shooting back. What is it with these people, anyway?
Phase V: Siege Mentality. The media begins a period of intense obsessing about the seven elite Republican Guard divisions ringing Baghdad and the city of Tikrit, Saddam's hometown. Fears rise of costly urban battles and the possible use of chemical and biological weapons. ABC's Ted Koppel, jouncing along on a Bradley Fighting Vehicle with the 3ID, trims his trademark bouffant hairdo so he can get a better fit on his gas mask.
Global financial markets plunge. Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle, displaying his customary exquisite flair for political timing, expresses Democrats' "total backing" for America's men and women at war while suggesting that Bush's pursuit of the conflict violates the Administrative Procedures Act -- and is therefore grounds for ousting him in 2004.
Phase VI: Stalingrad -- Not! Military commentators who have spent weeks talking up TV graphics of urban-warfare scenarios are stunned when Baghdad falls after a short, sharp fight. The decisive turn in the battle comes when Saddam's Republican Guards (dubbed "GOP Guards" by the liberal media) are decimated by Allied air power.
Surveying the carnage, humanitarian groups declare a human-rights disaster and demand reparation payments from coalition forces. Democratic Presidential contender Al Sharpton, beating former Attorney General Ramsey Clark to Baghdad by mere minutes, declares that he'll bring a class action against the Pentagon on behalf of Iraqi combatants. The charge: The U.S. failed to file an Environmental Impact Statement before attacking.
Phase VII: War and Forgetfulness. With victory at hand, the mainstream press abandons its raft of pre-war articles predicting total, unrelenting apocalypse in Iraq. Instead, reporters shift to writing stories that herald the imminent failure of the U.S. peace plan and the incipient destabilization of the world from a string of U.S. preemptive wars. The Dow reacts by surging to 9,000.
After urgent deliberations on America's 14-day war, North Korea and Iran petition the White House to be removed from Bush's Axis of Evil designation, suggesting as an alternative a listing on something called the Axis of Not-Niceness.
At the Pentagon, Rumsfeld scorns the overture, saying: "I hear the sound of knees knocking." The same day, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell demurs, stating that the U.S. "appreciates this gesture of reconciliation and will respond appropriately at the appropriate time."
Democrats switch their focus back to the economy, suggesting that the White House pay for the war and Iraq's reconstruction with a $1,000 per family war tax and a $2,000 surcharge on sport-utility vehicles. Life goes on...
Walczak is Washington bureau chief for BusinessWeek Edited by Douglas Harbrecht
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