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Two months after becoming the 43rd President, George W. Bush is riding high in the polls. His job-approval rating hovers near 60%, and some two-thirds of Americans like him personally. His Cabinet gets very high marks. A large majority favors his tax cut. And former President Bill Clinton's plummeting poll numbers only seem to underscore Bush's popularity even more.
Still, it's too early for Bush aides to uncork the bubbly or sign eight-year leases on their Beltway townhouses. The same polls that provide plenty of good news for Bush also contain some warning signs.
The greatest danger: Half the public doesn't think that the President is fully in command of the White House, according to a Mar. 8-12 CBS News/New York Times poll. Vice-President Dick Cheney's health problems are a big concern to many: Just 36% of Americans are confident he will serve out his term.
What's more, many Bush-Cheney policy priorities are controversial. Far and away the most unpopular: the Administration's strong support for energy drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. By 2-to-1, voters say that protecting the environment is more important than searching for oil and gas under the Alaskan tundra.
SNAPSHOTS. Overall, while Bush has made a good first impression, a malaise is enveloping the nation. Today, 54% of Americans say the country is on the wrong track, while just 40% say the country is headed in the right direction.
Yes, these polls seem to offer a little something for everyone. So what should we make of them? Like the current President, and unlike President Clinton, who lived and died by the polls, skepticism is called for regarding such surveys. They're snapshots. And politicians and journalists often egregiously misinterpret opinion surveys.
But a careful analysis of polling data can provide useful insights. So what have we learned about our new President? Bush has firmed up his Republican base and is popular among swing voters such as Independents, moderates, and suburbanites. That's good news for him.
REJECTION. But the partisan scars of the bitter, protracted 2000 election still remain. Only a bare majority of Americans views Bush as the legitimate President, according to the CBS News/New York Times poll -- and three-fourths of African Americans refuse to accept the legitimacy of the new chief executive.
On almost every issue (except education), Democrats seem intractably opposed to Bush's policy initiatives. And while Bush's job-approval rating stood at 58% in a Mar. 9-11 CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, it slipped by five percentage points in a week following a campaign-style barnstorming tour by the President.
What can Bush do to maintain -- or improve -- his standing with the public? Reinforce the positive. Most Americans think the President is likeable, down-to-earth, and honest. But when Bush acts like a politician, the public splits 50/50 along party lines.
There's a lesson here. When Bush talks directly to Americans in a nonpartisan way, most people seem to respond. His first nationally televised address to Congress received rave reviews from those who watched -- though the audience size paled in comparison to Clinton's usual State of the Union viewership.
WEAK SPOTS. According to a Mar. 3-5 Los Angeles Times poll, 59% say Bush and his Cabinet are uniting the country, while just 24% say they are divisive. Bush is "not flowery or pretentious," says Connecticut's Governor John Rowland, a Republican. "He's trusted."
In addition, Bush has benefited from the being perceived as the un-Clinton. "This whole Clinton debacle is the best thing George Bush could hope for," says Republican pollster Frank Luntz. "It makes the public that much more thankful that the Clintons are gone" from the White House.
Despite Bush's popularity figures, Democrats have plenty of opportunities to probe for weak spots. On most important issues, voters say they prefer the Democratic approach to the GOP's way. And while many of Bush's top priorities -- education reform and grants to churches to deliver social services, for example -- are popular on the surface, voters become increasingly skeptical as they learn more details.
According to the CBS News/New York Times survey, two-thirds of Americans agree with Bush's concept of permitting faith-based groups to provide job training or drug counseling. But half of those supporters abandon ship when they learn that their tax dollars could end up in the pockets of controversial groups such as the Church of Scientology, the Hare Krishnas, or the Nation of Islam. Likewise, 78% favor mandatory testing of public-school students. But 68% oppose Bush's plan to tie some federal aid to the test scores.
RICH BENEFITS. Bush's $1.6 trillion tax cut also could prove to be a political target for Democrats. While almost all Americans say they deserve a tax cut, nearly 75% tell Gallup that Bush's plan will primarily benefit the rich. Only 41% want the Senate to pass the Bush-backed House plan, while 35% say it needs major changes and 17% want it rejected outright. Three-fourths want the plan altered to give more benefits to lower-income taxpayers. And 63% would stop the tax cuts if they are convinced that a huge tax cut would create a budget deficit in the future.
For the Democrats to capitalize on the President's policy liabilities, they need to develop a coordinated communications strategy (see BW Online, 3/5/01, "How the Dems Can Get Back into the Tax-Cut Game"). But until they do, the President, with his bully pulpit, is likely to remain in command of the message. And the polls are likely to remain good news for Bush.
Dunham is a White House correspondent for BusinessWeek's Washington bureau. Follow his Washington Watch every week, only on BW Online Edited by Douglas Harbrecht
Copyright 2001 , by The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.
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