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Imagine this: Americans wake up on Wednesday, Nov. 8, to learn that Texas Governor George W. Bush has garnered the most votes in the Presidential election -- but Vice-President Al Gore is the President-elect. A stunning capper to a roller coaster of a campaign year!
Unlikely? Yes, but not implausible. The scenario is a reminder that Presidential elections are decided not by the people, but by an anachronistic institution known as the Electoral College. And it's possible that Bush could roll up huge majorities in the Lone Star State and the heart of Dixie but narrowly lose big battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan, and New Jersey. That big bloc of 79 electoral votes could put Gore over the top, even though more Americans might prefer Bush.
The lesson in all this: Don't just look at the latest nationwide polls. It's also important to analyze the state-by-state contests that are shaping up from Florida to Alaska. The map is an especially interesting one this time around, because the electoral geography of Campaign 2000 is looking different than any in American history. Here's a glimpse:
The Solid South. Bill Clinton chipped away at the recent Republican grip on the South, capturing seven Southern states in either '92 or '96. But Gore -- even though he's a Tennessean by birth -- doesn't seem to have the same grit(s) in the Southland. Southerners seem to view Gore as more akin to Massachusetts' 1988 Democratic Presidential nominee Michael Dukakis than to Arkansas' Bill "Bubba" Clinton. At this point, Gore leads Bush only in his home state of Tennessee. Particularly disheartening for Democrats, Gore is trailing in two border states that traditionally lean Democratic in Presidential contests: Kentucky and West Virginia.
The Texas Stomp. Lone Star Governor Bush currently holds an incredible 70% to 23% lead in his home state, according to an American Research Group survey, and he's comfortably ahead in every state bordering Texas except New Mexico. The sparsely populated Land of Enchantment is up for grabs, but Gore might as well write off the rest of the Southwest for this election.
The Solid North. Once upon a time, the Puritans ruled in New England. Now, Northeastern voters rebel against the puritanical streak in the GOP. Once reliably Republican, New England is now the electoral base of the Democratic Party. Bush can say goodbye to New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Vermont. And he remains a long-shot in former GOP hotbeds of New Hampshire and Maine.
The GOP's Great Basin. Al Gore's political black hole begins at the Black Hills of South Dakota and continues across the Rockies. The Veep may not even get a single electoral vote in the 13 states of the Great Plains and Mountain West. This is bad news for the Democrats. Bill Clinton managed to win in Montana, Nevada, Colorado, and Arizona in at least one of his campaigns. Only Colorado offers Gore even a faint chance in 2000. Once again, voters here see Gore as an Old Democrat and Bush as a New Westerner. Tough combination for Gore.
The Gold Coast. California, once an electoral lock for the GOP, now is close to a sure shot for the Democratic Party, thanks largely to the immigrant-bashing legacy of Republican ex-Governor Pete Wilson. The state's 54 electoral votes will give Gore 20% of the total he needs to capture the White House and offset a certain debacle in the Inland West. But Oregon and Washington, swept by Clinton, are still up for grabs. Gore is having lingering troubles in those Democratic-leaning states, which are essential components in any Gore electoral map.
Rust Belt Rumble. With so much of the country already "in the bag," this Presidential contest will be decided as never before in the nation's industrial heartland -- from Pennsylvania in the east to Wisconsin and Missouri in the west. Of these states, Ohio and Indiana lean Republican, Illinois and Wisconsin lean Democratic, and the others (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Missouri) are toss-ups. Gore can't afford to lose more than two of these battles. So you can expect Bush to spend a lot of time trying to woo the blue-collar voters who dominate the region. And don't be surprised to see the Texan pick a Rust Belt Republican as his running mate.
Where do things stand today? A Business Week analysis of the Electoral College gives Bush a lead in 26 states, with 240 electoral votes, 30 short of the magic number. Gore is ahead in 14 states (and the District of Columbia) with 186 electoral votes. An additional 10 states with 112 electoral votes are too close to call.
Believe it or not, that's good news for Gore: Despite Bush's current lead in the national polls, the Vice-President is still within easy striking distance of victory. But to pull it off, Gore is going to have to turn things around in the Pacific Northwest, Appalachia, and the industrial Midwest. Thanks to the electoral map, it's likely to be an exciting Presidential race right down to the wire.
Dunham is White House correspondent for Business Week. Follow his columns on Mondays, only on BW Online
EDITED BY DOUGLAS HARBRECHT
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