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Add up all the plusses and minuses, and only one person on George W. Bush's short list for Vice-President has the potential to provide a big boost to the Republican ticket: Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge. But that's on paper: The likelihood is that Ridge won't be chosen. And the dichotomy reinforces one of the truisms of picking a No. 2: Better safe than (potentially) sorry.
What does Ridge have going for him? He's a wildly popular governor in a key swing state. He's a decorated Vietnam vet. He's a Catholic -- an important, historically Democratic voting bloc that Bush is aggressively courting. Ridge even has Washington and foreign-relations expertise that Bush lacks.
A proven vote-getter across party lines, Republican Ridge represented a Democrat-leaning House district for a decade, then made a name for himself as an innovative, reform-minded chief exec for the Keystone State. He's a pro-choice social moderate with strong backing among suburban independents. He's a tax-cutting fiscal conservative. He has a working relationship with organized labor, but he's still tight with business. And he's a close friend of both Bush and one-time rival John McCain. "Ridge is the one who could do the most for Bush," argues Emory University political scientist Merle Black.
LOUD THREATS.
Plus, Ridge on the ticket would be a political nightmare for Vice-President Al Gore -- at least that's what many Democratic operatives think. Recent polling bears this out: A Keystone Poll released July 12 showed Bush narrowly ahead of Gore in Pennsylvania, 44% to 40%. But with Ridge on the ticket, Bush's lead ballooned to 12 percentage points, all but assuring that the state's 23 electoral votes would be in the GOP column. The last time a Republican Presidential candidate won Pennsylvania but lost nationally was Thomas E. Dewey, way back in 1948.
Sounds like a no-brainer, right? So if Ridge is Mister Perfect, then why does his star seem to be on the wane in the Veep Derby? In a word: Abortion.
Anti-abortion activists hate the idea that George W. Bush would even consider picking a running mate who opposes a constitutional amendment to criminalize abortion. They're loudly threatening to bolt from the GOP to Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan if Ridge is nominated. When rumors of a Bush-Ridge ticket began to spread, Religious Right leader Phyllis Schlafly told Business Week's Lorraine Woellert that choosing Ridge would be "a terribly dumb move" for Bush that would alienate Christian conservatives. Ridge, she said, "is a pro-abortion Catholic. That's kind of a two-fer."
RISK-AVERSE.
Defeated Presidential candidate Alan Keyes recently said that a Ridge selection, "would be a recipe for political suicide. Such a ticket could never win," Keyes argued, "especially in an era when the greatest question overhanging the country is the question of moral integrity. In nominating a pro-abortion running mate, Bush would cast great doubt over his own sense of principle."
It could be argued that Bush clobbered Keyes in the primaries and has little reason to heed the warnings of his party's right wing. Choosing Ridge would surely reinforce the "compassionate" part of Bush's Compassionate Conservatism. But that ignores one undeniable truth about Bush: As a politician, he is risk-averse.
W. just doesn't like to take chances. He has a game plan -- and he sticks to it. An integral part of the strategy is keeping the GOP's Christian conservatives in the fold. This means the party platform -- which calls for a litmus test requiring all future federal judges to oppose abortion -- must remain in place. It also means the Republican Vice-Presidential nominee should favor reversing Roe v. Wade.
THEN WHO?
Without Ridge, Bush probably would lose Pennsylvania, but he could still eke out a victory in the Electoral College. Picking Ridge, however, would likely cause a major schism within the party -- with unpredictable consequences. Guess which way the campaign will go.
And don't forget Dan Quayle. Bush's father, former-President George Bush, never will. The selection of Quayle by Bush senior was followed by a week of negative press coverage. The younger Bush isn't anxious to have the media play up abortion-related divisions within the Republican Party on the eve of his coronation in Philadelphia. Easier just to sacrifice the convention's home-state governor.
If not Ridge, then who? "Safe" Catholic Republicans could include Oklahoma Governor Frank Keating, Ohio Senator George Voinovich, and Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson. Other "safe" anti-abortion picks include Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel, Tennessee Senators Fred Thompson and Bill Frist, former Cabinet official Elizabeth Dole, and House Budget Committee Chairman John Kasich.
"FIRESTORM."
Outside of the Ohio pols, none would be likely to deliver a key state to Bush. None would provide a political "grand slam" for Bush. "Tom Ridge is the only 'triple' on the Republican side," says Charles Cook, editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "But there would be a firestorm. And I'm not sure Bush is that kind of risk-taker."
Watch for the Texas governor to make a "safe" but successful choice -- much in the mold of Ronald Reagan's 1980 running mate, George Herbert Walker Bush.
Dunham covers the White House for BusinessWeek from the Washington bureau, and he shares BW Online's Monday Washington Watch column with Howard Gleckman
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