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Get Four
|  | JULY 29, 2004
By Stan Crock The World According to Kerry [Page 2 of 2] GLOBAL CALCULATION. What's more, Kerry is more hawkish than many Democrats and won't rule out a Bush-style preemptive strike or unilateral military action if allies balk at joining a coalition. Europeans "are in for a disappointment," says Ezra Suleiman, director of European studies at Princeton University. "They think there will be a quick turnaround on policy, and there won't." Adds Kerry adviser James P. Rubin: "The goals of foreign policy don't change that much from Administration to Administration. The difference -- and it's a big difference -- is how you go about achieving those goals." Take Iraq. Like Bush, the Massachusetts Democrat would stay the course. But he would make adjustments. While Bush has sought more U.N. involvement, Kerry wants a U.N. High Commissioner to run Iraq's elections and reconstruction. And he would invite Iraq's neighbors to a summit to pledge to protect Iraq's borders and stop meddling in Baghdad's internal political affairs. Kerry also wants NATO troops to relieve the stress on American GIs. He believes allies have the resources but don't want to share them with this White House. "There's a political cost [foreign] leaders must pay" when they cooperate with Bush, says Rubin. "If Kerry is elected, that calculation is going to change." But will it change enough to get boots on the ground? "NO SOFTIE." In a similar fashion, Kerry would preserve the Six-Party Talks for dealing with North Korea's nuclear program but would tweak the U.S. approach. Again, though, Kerry will have to contend with Bush's sudden policy shifts. Under pressure from China, Japan, and South Korea, which were tired of U.S. stonewalling, the President recently outlined for the North what it could gain by ending its nuclear capabilities -- a step Kerry had urged for months. And U.S. officials have had some tête-à-têtes with North Korean officials, a previous no-no. Kerry would hold formal direct meetings with Pyongyang. Some Kerry aides, skeptical that strongman Kim Jong Il would give up his nuclear program, think such talks could flush out his real intentions. Both candidates demand verifiable dismantling of nuclear facilities. But Kerry goes further. He might put a top adviser in charge, such as former Defense Secretary William J. Perry. The hawkish Perry "is no softie on North Korea," says Richard H. Solomon, president of the U.S. Institute of Peace. The Kerry team would state clearly that certain steps, such as building nuclear bombs, would trigger an economic or even military response from the U.S. Bush hasn't been so explicit. POLL GAPS. In the Middle East, Kerry would make a renewed effort to push the peace process forward. He would appoint a Presidential envoy to reinvigorate the process and work with the Palestinian Authority and neighboring states to create a Palestinian leadership "that in fact can deliver across the table for the Israeli government," says Rand Beers, a counterterrorism expert who left Bush's National Security Council to coordinate the Kerry campaign's foreign policy. How will all this play with voters? Bush's mixed record creates an opening. A July 19-21 Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows that by 50% to 47%, Americans believe the Iraq war was a mistake. Yet so far, Kerry has made little headway: Only 36% in the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll rated him highly on protecting U.S. interests abroad. And a July 19 USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll shows Bush with a 56%-to-38% edge on handling terrorism. Nor will Kerry's approach necessarily bring détente with Europe. Walter Russell Mead, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, says that as Europe becomes more unified, it sees itself as a rising great power, while the U.S. sees it as declining. "Those tensions will be present regardless of who wins in November," he says. The issue for voters is whether they want a President who sees the world in black and white or in shades of gray.
 With Jack Ewing in Frankfurt, John Rossant in Paris, Moon Ihlwan in Seoul, and Dexter Roberts in Beijing Crock is a correspondent in BusinessWeek's Washington bureau For more on the Democratic National Convention, see BusinessWeek Online's continuing coverage at www.businessweek.com/election2004.htm Get BusinessWeek directly on your desktop with our RSS feeds.  Add BusinessWeek news to your Web site with our headline feed. Click to buy an e-print or reprint of a BusinessWeek or BusinessWeek Online story or video. To subscribe online to BusinessWeek magazine, please click here. Learn more, go to the BusinessWeekOnline home page  | | |
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