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Get Four
|  | JULY 26, 2004
By Ciro Scotti Time for Dems to Cool the Bush Bashing The rabble rousers have done their job stoking partisan passions. Now, Kerry/Edwards need to make less strident pleas to undecideds On Day One of the Democratic National Convention, the party of Kennedy (John) once again has a real shot at capturing the Presidency. But that opportunity so far seems to have little to do with the charisma of its nominee-to-be, as was the case in 1960. Nor is a third-party insurgency there to snatch votes from Republicans (despite what Ralph Nader says), as in 1992. The Democrats are wearing goofy grins now because they're up against an incumbent who in four long years has managed to instill fear and loathing in a significant number of his countrymen -- not to mention other citizens of the planet. And if the stock market and economy continue to behave erratically, the Dems may be able to exploit middle-class angst -- however real or imagined -- as Bill Clinton so famously did in 1992 (see BW Online, 7/26/04, "Kerry's Convention To-Do List"). Besides, with professors, pipe fitters, tech geeks, and billionaires all digging deep to make sure George W. Bush spends the next four years clearing brush in Crawford, Tex., the Democratic Party and its unofficial allies have more cash than Croesus (see BW, 8/2/04 "Money Machine"). But they could still blow it. AN OSAMA POP? What should have the Dems sleepless in Boston? For starters, the specter of another terrorist attack on U.S. soil, to which Bush would presumably respond with the same admirable resolve that he displayed after September 11. As Americans again rally round the flag, many would forget the 9/11 Commission report and be in no mind to change leaders in another time of crisis (see BW, 6/1/04, "Four Scenarios for November"). Or all those Special Ops and bounty hunters looking for Osama could finally bring in the messianic Beelzebub who has eluded the might of America for almost three years. To get a real pop from popping or bagging Bin Laden, however, the Administration needs it to happen close enough to Nov. 2 that the rejoicing lasts through the election. Nail him too early, and voters would have time to think about how long it took to neutralize the man who killed the country's innocents and innocence. Then there's the economy to worry about. While jobs have been coming back, a sizable number of people are still looking for work. The budget deficit blew through the White House roof long ago. Rates are inching up. And the market is in a funk. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan keeps making grandfatherly assurances that everything is going to be all right. But some Republicans still blame Greenspan's policies for helping to deny reelection to the President's father, George H.W. Bush, 12 years ago. DON'T PUSH IT. What's worrisome for both Democrats and Republicans is that this economy is like an unpredictable Thoroughbred: It could charge past the pack or bolt for the barn. As my favorite accountant says about the market: "Nobody knows anything." In this convention week, when the world starts paying close attention to the Presidential election and a lot of independents are watching, what really ought to have the Dems staring at the ceilings of their hotel rooms all night (that is, those who don't have a Beacon Hill mansion to repair to) is the danger of overplaying their hand. The Howard Deans and Michael Moores of the world have done their jobs, inflamed the party base, gotten some of the disaffected involved, and primed the money pump so well that it just keeps gushing gold. The rabble has been roused. Now it's time to back off and let John Kerry and John Edwards demonstrate to less strident minds that they're reasonable alternatives to George Bush and Dick Cheney. NOT EXACTLY IN CONTROL. Few things are more unappealing than a smug liberal, and with so many shoot-from-the-lip celebrities now piggy-piling on the bash-Bush movement, independents could get nauseated by I-told-you-so'ers and get spooked by out-of-control zealots. Remember Pat Buchanan's passionate "culture wars" speech at the 1992 GOP National Convention. Someday, Buchanan will be remembered as a true prophet of the Right. But that night, he scared the bejesus out of moderates of both parties with his last national rant as a card-carrying Republican. The trouble for Dems is that in raising vast sums to challenge Bush/Cheney, they've had to skirt the new campaign-finance laws. And to do that, the party has had to relinquish a lot of control over its message to so-called 527s and other left-leaning groups that fly below the soft-money radar. There's nothing like a spirited American political debate, and for my mind, the more candor and fervor the better. That's what was so refreshing about the candidacies of John McCain in 2000 and, even more so, of Howard Dean this time around. But if the Dems don't want to scare indies or startle fence-sitters over to the other side, they need to stay humble and politely tell Whoopi, Julian Bond, Al Franken, and other over-the-top partisans to put a sock in it.  For more on the Democratic National Convention, see BusinessWeek Online's continuing coverage at www.businessweek.com/election2004.htm Scotti is a BusinessWeek senior editor and author of BW Online's A Not-So-Neutral Corner column. Follow his Democratic National Convention dispatches all week, only on BW Online Edited by Douglas Harbrecht
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