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Get Four
|  | JULY 26, 2004
By Richard S. Dunham Kerry's Convention To-Do List To get the needed bounce, he has make himself known to voters, especially to the undecided. Here are some specific ways On the eve of the Democratic convention, the Presidential contest seems John Kerry's for the taking. But he just can't seem to get a firm grasp on the golden ring. As they say on the sportscast, let's go to the videotape: Polls show that Americans by a wide margin think the country is headed in the wrong direction. A majority of voters now think the invasion of Iraq was a mistake and has made the country less safe from terrorism and less respected in the world. And President Bush's job-approval ratings have been consistently below 50% -- a popularity level that has resulted in defeat for three defeated incumbents in the past three decades. Yet, national polls show an electorate still unsure about Kerry. Even with a temporary uptick after selecting running mate John Edwards, the Massachusetts senator remains locked in a statistical tie with the embattled President. That's a reality that confounds veteran Democratic operatives. "We should be ahead by 10 to 15 points," Democratic pollster Celinda Lake recently said at a breakfast meeting with reporters. For that reason, the Democratic National Convention is vitally important to nominee Kerry. It's his best opportunity to date to alter the dynamics of a 50/50 contest that has changed little since the end of the primary season -- despite mountains of bad news for Bush from the Middle East and more than $150 million in advertising by both candidates trying to reshape the race. "Kerry hasn't made the case to lock in a lot of people," says Jack Holmes, a political scientist at Hope College in Holland, Mich. So what does the Democrat need to accomplish in Boston to break the stalemate? Here are a few of the items on his to-do list: Define himself on his own terms. One of 2004's shocking poll numbers is that nearly one-third of Americans aren't yet sure what they think of John Kerry. No wonder the Bush campaign has spent some $90 million to define him as a taxaholic, flip-flopping, out-of-the-cultural-mainstream Massachusetts liberal. Get the picture? That's why polls show most Americans now view Kerry as a liberal who would raise their taxes. The Democratic nominee wants to change that caricature into a more noble portrait of a war hero who has served his nation for three decades, from Vietnam to the corridors of Congress. The Kerry campaign will use the convention to present him as a strong, steady leader and a man of firm principles who is flexible enough to compromise to get things done. "There has to be a lot of biography," says senior campaign strategist Tad Devine. "Remember that a lot of people haven't heard the story yet: a lifetime of service and strength." Leading Democrats say the image makeover is vital to Kerry's chances. "A lot of people are going to be introduced to John Kerry for the first time at the convention," says Al From, CEO of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council. "He has to convince voters that he's a viable alternative." Remember the undecided voters. About 9 in 10 American voters already have picked sides, according to most polls. The Boston confab gives Kerry his best chance yet to reach the uncommitted slice. But undecided voters are different than raw-meat Democratic loyalists: They don't hate the President (though many are disappointed in his performance) and they don't like slash-and-burn politics (see BW Online, 7/26/04, "Time for Dems to Cool the Bush Bashing"). So Kerry & Co. must be careful not to bash Bush too often or too harshly. Memo to the Dems: Think positive!
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