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What Happened to Economic Growth? While Bush excels in molding perceptions about his leadership, voters clearly aren't sold on his policies. In fact, they're downright suspicious (see BW Online, 7/3/03, "Wanted: A Politics of Generiosity"). A recent Harris poll on his tax cut showed that while a slight majority tepidly approved it, by 54% to 34%, most of those polled also think it's unfair and that the benefits will go largely to the rich. A majority preferred to see the money spent on improving health care, education, and other government programs. Small wonder the President is now heavily promoting a new Medicare prescription benefit.
Here's the election-year problem for Bush: If the two major tax cuts now enacted under his Administration -- in 2001 and this one -- don't get the economy growing again soon, the perception that he's looking out only for the rich will likely grow. The June job numbers released on July 3, with the unemployment rate spiking to 6.4%, is yet another setback.
Bush may have good will in abundance, but if the economy doesn't get back on track by yearend, he'll have a political hot potato in his hands as his reelection contest draws near. Democrats will ask: Is he trying to do a good job for all the people? Bush better have an answer.
Bush-Speak: I cringe every time Texan Bush slips on his rhetorical six-guns and blurts out something like: "Bring 'em on," the taunt he issued on July 2 to Iraqi militants who have been attacking U.S. troops. Not that it isn't colorful, even charming in a way to average voters. Americans respond to such tough, plain talk. It's action-hero stuff. But the President has a strange way of choosing colloquialisms that just don't wear well politically.
Remember how he was going to track down Osama bin Laden, dead or alive? Remember how Saddam's days were numbered? Then, suddenly, it didn't matter if the U.S. ever found him. Now, American troops are going through bombed-out buildings looking for the brutal dictator's DNA, because, like Elvis, reports of Saddam sightings are become routine in Iraq, giving Iraqis pause that he might one day return.
Like his father who suffered for calling Saddam "worse than Hitler" before Gulf War I and then pulled up short of vanquishing him, this President, too, can't quite seem to shut the lid on evildoers. Instead, his paeans to action heroics come off looking too personal, too concerned with flattering his Presidency, and not enough with getting the job done.
"Hasta la vista, baby" is powerful rhetoric, but you better back it up. Otherwise, people wonder if you're really trying to do a good job. Ronald Reagan understood this. Bush needs to come to grips with it.
CLOSER CONTEST? Yes, the President enjoys many advantages going into 2004. He has the largest campaign warchest in history, a bevy of lesser-known Democratic wannabes squabbling among themselves, and a huge reservoir of good will with the American people. But even blowouts in Presidential reelection contests rarely exceed a victory margin of 10 percentage points. (Remember Clinton's never-in-doubt reelection over Republican Bob Dole in 1996? Eight points -- 49% to 41%, with 8% voting for Ross Perot.)
A year truly is a lifetime in politics. As this year plays out, especially if the Democrats can cull a credible challenger, by the campaign's official opening on Labor Day 2004 the issue of Bush being reelected could be a lot closer than people realize today. The key question is whether he'll still have Joe and Jane Voter thinking, "He's trying to do a good job. Leave him alone."
Copyright 2003, Bloomberg L.P.
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