PREMIUM SEARCH Search by job title, geography and build a list of executive contacts
Bring in help from allies: No, the Administration isn't about to turn the Iraqi occupation over to the U.N., as Kucinich wants. Bush officials are still steamed over the Security Council's rebuff of a resolution sanctioning the U.S. invasion of Iraq. But the Pentagon is looking to enlist foreign troops and NATO to shoulder some of the burden.
About 12,000 soldiers from Britain, Australia, and Poland are already in Iraq. The Defense Dept. says it has firm commitments from 24 more countries to provide forces and is discussing possible support with a dozen nations. The foreign commitment is expected to total about 20,000 soldiers, even after the Brits rotate their troops out. That's not enough to relieve many GIs, however. Even with 170,000 troops, the force will be just two-thirds the size, relative to the population, of the Balkan peacekeepers.
Empowering the Iraqis: Turning more political authority over to locals has plenty of surface appeal. It would lower the U.S. profile and mollify irate Iraqis. An interim city council in Baghad met for the first time July 7. And occupation czar L. Paul Bremer III appears to be making headway toward forming a transitional national council.
Experts caution, however, that turning over too much authority too fast or holding elections before secular moderates have a chance to build a political base could backfire. "Either the bad guys or the religious types are the best organized in the society and probably are the best able to win or seize power," cautions one GOP foreign-policy guru. "I wouldn't push the politics right away."
So where does this leave Commander-in-Chief Bush? Boxed in in Baghdad. So he better brace for more potshots from domestic critics. The U.S. military is becoming more aggressive in ferreting out militants. Capturing Saddam Hussein or Osama bin Laden would provide a tremendous psychological lift for the Administration. But a major military ramp-up isn't in the cards. Look for incremental handovers of political and bureaucratic power -- and a U.S. troop presence in Iraq for years to come.
Rebuilding the country's infrastructure may yield the most positive news over the short term, although the gains will be modest. The electric grid will soon be generating 4,000 megawatts, roughly the pre-war level and approaching the 4,500 megawatt capacity but still well below national demand of 6,000 megawatts. The oil infrastructure is producing 800,000 barrels a day and should increase output to 1 million this fall -- far less than the 2 million barrels expected.
MISPLACED PRIORITIES? About 60% of city dwellers and 30% of rural residents now have access to drinking water -- about the same as before the war. The port of Umm Qasr has been dredged, so large ships can bring in relief supplies and goods for trade, while commercial air traffic will begin shortly for the first time in 12 years. Faster progress won't occur until foreign business executives are confident that their employees will be safe if they head toward Baghdad.
The question for President Bush is whether enough progress will be made fast enough to pacify the Iraqis -- and American voters. Adding to his dilemma: If success in Iraq is too swift, Democrats could try to portray the President as caring more about people in other countries than at home during the campaign next year. "We're planning to build 25,000 schools in Iraq, but we've cut the budget for building schools in the U.S.," says Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. The major military battles in Iraq may be over, but the political combat at home is just beginning.
Crock covers national security and foreign affairs for BusinessWeek from Washington. Follow his views in Affairs of State twice a month, only on BusinessWeek Online. Correspondent Richard S. Dunham also contributed to this story Edited by Douglas Harbrecht
Get BusinessWeek directly on your desktop with our RSS feeds.
Add BusinessWeek news to your Web site with our headline feed.
Click to buy an e-print or reprint of a BusinessWeek or BusinessWeek Online story or video.
To subscribe online to BusinessWeek magazine, please click here.
Copyright 2003, Bloomberg L.P.
Printer-Friendly Version
