Edited by Thane Peterson

In Britain, 14 people have been stricken with a previously unknown version of a fatal brain illness called Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. Many scientists now fear that this new variant is caused by eating cattle infected with bovine spongiform encephalopathy, or "mad cow" disease.

If those fears are correct, the looming question is: How many more people will die? In an analysis in the January 16, 1997, issue of the scientific journal Nature, epidemiologist Simon Cousens from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and colleagues reach a sobering conclusion. While it's too soon to know for sure, the scientists warn that there's no reason to believe that the number of deaths will remain small.

That's because the disease can take years to develop. Indeed, the scientists' analysis shows that if a mere 25 new cases are identified next year, followed by at least 50 or so in 1998, then inevitably the disease will eventually strike many thousands more.

By John Carey in London