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After 114 town-hall meetings and six months of virtually living in New Hampshire, it's time for Arizona Senator John McCain. Do-or-Die Time.
The good news for the insurgent conservative: New Hampshire's maverick voters like him. His favorability ratings are a stratospheric 80%. His audiences are loud and enthusiastic. Even a strong Bush backer, Texas State Senator Teel Bivens, acknowledges that McCain has run "an excellent campaign."
The bad news: It might not be enough to get him a win. As the Feb. 1 primary approaches, McCain is in a close battle with Texas Governor George W. Bush, who was trailing by double digits just a couple of weeks ago. And the momentum is all with Bush. The Republican front-runner has been buoyed by a raft of key endorsements, a veteran organization, an issue-oriented positive campaign, and a television offensive that has blanketed the airwaves of New Hampshire (and neighboring Massachusetts) with first-rate commercials.
ADVANTAGE, BUSH.
For McCain, there's no substitute for victory. His only chance to win the nomination is to knock Bush out of the race early. For that to happen, he needs to start in New Hampshire. "This is his best shot," says Bush's chief strategist, Karl Rove. "He's not going to do better anywhere else."
After New Hampshire, Bush has all of the advantages. He has raised more than $70 million and is still plugging away. He has the support of nearly every Republican governor and senator -- and their local political organizations. He's much better known than McCain, and he's the distinct favorite of party loyalists. And he has made major inroads among Christian conservatives who dominate GOP primaries in the South, the Plains states, and the Rocky Mountain West.
So it's an imperative for McCain to win -- now. The war hero had wanted to score a win in New Hampshire that would give him Big Mo in the next primary showdowns in South Carolina (Feb. 19) and Michigan (Feb. 22). That scenario now seems unlikely. Unless there's an inexplicable last-minute shift of momentum, McCain will -- at best -- win a modest triumph. The Texas governor won't be reeling after Tuesday's vote.
With the election imminent, Bush's backers can smell victory. They're hoping for an early knockout that can allow their candidate to focus his attention -- and money -- on the Democrats. "If we win here, it's over," says Texas Senator Bivens. He has a point. That's why McCain's campaign brain trust, having run a nearly flawless campaign, is looking mighty nervous right now.
Dunham, White House correspondent for Business Week, is in New Hampshire for the primary EDITED BY DOUGLAS HARBRECHT
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