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The Internet economy is placing new demands on the nation's electricity supplies -- and some experts say the power grid may wilt under the pressure. The number of people using the Net will soon exceed 200 million -- with 80% of the traffic routed through U.S. servers. There's a growing consensus among industry analysts that the Net -- which requires 24-hour, 7-day-a-week, fail-safe power -- will force an overhaul of the country's aging electrical-grid structure and greater cooperation among Internet, electric utility, and telecom companies.
Already, the Internet has been responsible for one-half to two-thirds of the increased demand for electricity in the U.S. in the last decade, according to Mark Mills, president of Mills-McCarthy & Associates, a Washington-based energy consulting firm. At a recent conference at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington, D.C., Mills predicted that "half of all electricity within the next decade will be devoted to computers and the Internet."
Total Internet and computer usage is estimated to soak up about 8% of the total U.S. electric output, according to David Dortman, managing editor of the Huber Mills Power Report. That percentage is likely to continue to grow sharply as Internet use increases worldwide.
HOW MANY NINES?
More usage raises the stakes with regard to reliability. Power surges and brownouts are Kryptonite to the cyberworld, with the potential for rendering whole industries and distribution networks powerless. Mills marvels that while growth in demand for electricity is in lockstep with gross domestic product growth (1/3 of GDP involves Internet technology), the telecom and utility industries haven't worked together more closely to assure reliability. They don't even share the same standard. For example, the "three nines" reliability standard -- or 99.9% -- is considered the norm for the utility companies, meaning power is on 99.9% of the time during a year. But in the technology world, a much more strict "six nines" standard is considered the minimum.
Reliability is likely to get worse before it gets better, Mills cautions. Deregulation of the vertically integrated electric industry could result in a shakeout, causing heavy financial losses for some power companies. The shakeout could be similar to what the airlines went through when they first deregulated, says Mills. When this happens, the Internet sector will have to adjust, but makeshift solutions, such as setting up their own emergency-power operations, "will create more problems in the long run," he believes.
That's why "realizing the benefits of e-commerce will require increased attention to the surety of the Internet, electricity, and other infrastructures," says Sam Varnado, director of the Energy & Critical Infrastructure Technology Center at Sandia National Laboratories. While computers are more energy-efficient than before, Varnado cautions that peak electricity demand last summer exceeded previous records by 3% to 5%. Power disruptions caused by system overload are intolerable to Internet-dependent organizations.
CALL ME UNRELIABLE.
Sandia Labs simulated a hypothetical power shortage in Houston, in which half the city experienced four separate power outages, while the other half experienced one continuous power outage for the same amount of time. The four shorter lapses were considered more disruptive for businesses and the local economy, the study found, since the inference drawn from such an experience is that the power supply can't be trusted. "Companies will move out of areas where electricity is perceived to be unreliable," Varnado explains.
One way to ensure greater reliability is to modernize urban power grids with high-temperature superconductor wiring -- a technology that earned its two discoverers a Nobel prize in 1987. American Superconductor Corp., a major installer of HTS wiring, recently replaced some of Detroit's wiring with HTS gear, which takes up two-thirds less space than traditional wiring and is more reliable.
According to experts at the conference, it may take a lot more cities following Detroit's lead and retooling their power grids with HTS to head off the types of power shortages envisioned by Sandia Labs -- and keep the Internet economy humming.
Susan Straight in Washington EDITED BY DOUGLAS HARBRECHT
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