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|  | FEBRUARY 10, 2006
By Stanley Reed Drawing the Wrath of IslamA Danish paper's caricatures of Mohammed have given Mideast governments an excuse to fan the flames of fury and deflect attention from their own failingsTensions between the West and the Islamic world, including the large Muslim communities in Europe, have reached alarming proportions. The most talked about development has been the hostile and violent reaction across the Middle East and South Asia to some crude cartoons derogatory to the prophet Mohammed and Islam published in a leading Danish newspaper, Jyllands-Posten, last September. The attacks on the Danish and Norwegian embassies in the Arab world and other rioting, some of it lethal, have taken place against a backdrop of unease in the West over the militant Islamic organization Hamas winning a majority of the Palestinian parliament and Tehran's defiance of the West over Iran's nuclear program. Are these the first battles of the much-feared "Clash of Civilizations" that Harvard professor Samuel Huntington warned about in 1993? INTERNAL STRAINS. The answer is no. But that such a conflagration could be set off by such a seemingly minor spark shows how strong emotions are running both in the Islamic countries and in the Muslim communities of Europe. Muslims in the Mideast are angry over a host of perceived insults, including the occupation of Iraq, while some Muslims in Europe consider themselves an oppressed minority subject to abuse and injustices. The recent strong showing by Islamic groups in elections in the Middle East is leading both governments and mobs on the street to flex their muscles. But at their roots, these violent reactions may have more to do with profound pressures and shifts being felt in the Middle East and beyond than about hostility to the West. One clue: The main forces pushing the Danish government for an apology for the cartoons were not Islamic radicals such as al Qaeda. Instead, they were established Arab governments including Egypt, Syria, and Libya, as well as the conservative Saudis. The governments were moved to action when Danish Muslim groups came to them with complaints about the cartoons. Governments like those of Egypt and Syria have long been secular forces in the region. But they're feeling increasing heat for failing to deliver on a wide front from economic growth to meeting the growing political aspirations of their people. NORWAY, TOO. Islamic groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood, which did well in Egyptian parliamentary elections last fall, and Hamas, which recently won a shocking majority of seats in the Palestinian parliament, are increasingly taking advantage of the failures of such governments. These groups have grown much more pragmatic of late, stressing social services and the need to clean out corrupt officials. The greater pragmatism has added to their appeal. In recent comments, Hamas, which has never recognized the Israeli state, has even suggested that if Israel withdrew to its border before the 1967 war, then peace between Israelis and Palestinians might follow. Arab governments seem to have taken the cartoons so seriously because they were afraid of being outflanked by such groups. Take Syria. Its Baathist leadership is probably the most secular in the Arab world. Yet the Syrians were among the countries that withdrew their ambassador from Denmark. And Syria's notoriously ruthless police somehow lost control of a rampaging crowd in Damascus that burned the Danish Embassy and trashed that of Norway, which also has incurred the ire of Muslims because a Norwegian paper reprinted the cartoons. LIMP BOYCOTTS. Moreover, thanks to high oil revenues and red hot economies that are highly dependent on imported goods, the Middle Eastern countries probably calculate that they can squeeze Denmark and other European countries with the threat of trade boycotts. The Arab countries are heavyweight importers of European manufactured and agricultural goods. Denmark's exports to the Islamic countries came to a sizable $2.3 billion in 2004, with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran adding up to nearly $900 million. Iran has already decreed a cutoff of trade with Denmark, and sporadic boycotts of Danish and other European goods are under way in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. It's hard to say how long the economic punishments will last and how damaging they'll be. In a possibly analogous situation, an unofficial Saudi boycott of U.S. goods sparked by the recriminations following the September 11 attacks on the U.S. seems to have had little material impact on U.S. sales to the kingdom. NO LAUGHING MATTER. This is unlikely to be the last big furor over a perceived slight to Muslims. For one thing, the ongoing political shakeup in the Islamic world is likely to continue, tempting various actors to seize on pretexts to advance their own causes. This earthquake has been sparked by several factors, from the passing from the stage of a generation of post-World War II leaders to American pressure for greater democracy. The U.S. democracy drive is likely to contribute to a growing role for political Islam in the Middle East. When it comes to elections, pro-Western, free-market politicians in the region garner few votes. In Iraq, for instance, Shiite religious parties linked to Iran are coming to dominate the political process, not former London-based exiles such as Ahmed Chalabi. Joking about the Prophet is likely to remain a risky business for the foreseeable future.  Reed is BusinessWeek's London bureau chief with Ariane Sains in Stockholm
BW MALL
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