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What kind of year for technology was 2001? Let's take a look back at the winners and losers among tech products and services.
The clear standout was wireless local area networking (LANs). Despite the slowdown in technology spending, wireless LANs exploded in businesses, on campuses, in homes, and in public spaces, such as hotel meeting rooms and airports. The driving forces were a sharp decline in the cost of the technology, known as 802.11b, the appearance of laptops with built-in wireless, and the availability of simple kits for setting up networks in homes and small offices. Perhaps most important, the Wireless Ethernet Compatibility Assn. and its Wi-Fi certification program has made the dream of interoperability a reality.
Another winner, Microsoft's Windows XP, made a large contribution to the ease of using wireless networks. On wireless-equipped laptops, XP automatically senses the presence of any available wireless network. Click on the network of your choice, enter a password if needed, and you're up and running. It makes moving between wireless networks at home and in the office a breeze.
FLAT-SCREEN FUTURE. But the real strength of XP is that it brings the stability and security of Windows 2000 to home users. While it has some annoying features, such as trying to sell you other Microsoft products and services, the pluses outweigh the minuses.
Flat-panel monitors have been around for a long time, but off-putting prices tended to trump their attractive appearance. All that changed this year, when new production capacity came on-stream just as demand softened, leading to the predictable price collapse. You can now buy a 15-inch flat panel -- the equivalent, more or less, of a 17-inch cathode-ray tube (CRT) -- for as little as $300 and a really good 17-inch screen for around $800.
The quality of these displays has greatly improved: They're brighter, have more contrast, and can be viewed from wider angles. Given the rate of improvement in technology and decline in price for flat-panels, the CRT will all but disappear within a couple of years.
iPOD'S HAPPY TUNE. All work and no play won't do. And there's little doubt that the coolest toy of 2001, at least for grownups, is the Apple iPod, a digital music player that's both beautiful and highly functional. The $399 iPod comes equipped with a 5-gigabyte hard disk that will hold 1,000 or so songs and a lithium polymer battery that will play for 10 hours.
A FireWire link allows you to transfer music from a Macintosh to the iPod almost instantaneously. The biggest drawback: It only works with a Mac. Apple has talked about a Windows version but hasn't committed to make one. Meanwhile, a company called Mediafour plans to ship software that will allow an iPod to be used with any Windows computer that has FireWire (also known as iLink and IEEE 1394) ports.
If wireless LANs were the year's big winner, wide-area wireless data was the biggest disappointment. In August, Ricochet, an innovative service that brought high-speed data to handhelds and laptops anywhere within its limited service areas, shut down when parent Metricom ran out of money. By the end of the year, wireless Internet service provider YadaYada had folded, while bankrupt OmniSky sold off its subscriber list to Earthlink for a pittance.
BLUETOOTH BLUES. Yet 2002 could actually be a bright year for wide-area wireless. By June, wireless carriers VoiceStream, Cingular, AT&T Wireless, Sprint PCS, and Verizon all plan to be offering wireless data service of at least 40,000 bits per second in major U.S. cities.
Another wireless technology was a loser in 2001. Bluetooth is designed primarily to replace cables when hooking personal devices together. It had been assumed that millions of Bluetooth devices would be in use by now. But costs have not come down as quickly as hoped, software has not delivered the required ease of use, and Bluetooth devices from different manufacturers have failed to interoperate smoothly.
Bluetooth will probably get its last chance to become a star in 2002. The required chips are now being produced in quantity, which means that prices are falling, and interoperability problems are being resolved. The technology's big problem: In a number of applications, especially at the high end, 802.11b is a viable alternative that works better.
SLAPPED WRIST. The final loser of 2001 is neither a product nor a service -- it's the Bush Administration's decision to squander the government's win in the Microsoft antitrust case. Despite a total victory in trial and the unanimous upholding of key findings -- if not the proposed breakup -- by an appeals court, the Justice Dept. let the company off with a slap on the wrist.
Though a number of states have vowed to fight on, I'm not optimistic about their chances for success. The case was a real opportunity to address the danger that Microsoft will try to leverage its Windows monopoly in the growing and important area of Web-services technology. A tougher remedy would have been better both for Microsoft's competitors and for consumers, but a distracted Justice chose the let the moment pass.
Wildstrom is Technology & You columnist for BusinessWeek. Follow his Flash Product Reviews, only on BusinessWeek Online Edited by Beth Belton
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Copyright 2001 , by The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.
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