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A Santiago Spring for Democracy? Chile's Dec. 12 election may not be decisive. But even if a runoff is needed, the process looks like it'll go off without violence The streets of downtown Santiago on Dec. 7 rang with a rhythmic cheering of thousands of Chilean partisans, shouting: "Se siente! Se siente! Lavin Presidente!" (You can feel it! Lavin will be President!). Their chanting was for Joaquin Lavin, the candidate of Chile's right-wing opposition party, and there were a surprisingly large number of young faces in the crowd. Meanwhile, at the campaign headquarters of Socialist Party candidate Ricardo Lagos, cell-phone-toting students work on banners and fetch documents, with an occasional odd ring-piercing or tattoo peeking out from under a sleeve. For many years, "politics" was the ugliest word in Chilean Spanish, as many blamed the violent 1973 coup on the scheming and narrow self-interest of traditional party leaders. But as Chile readies for a presidential election on Dec. 12, young people seem to be flocking to candidates as if they were pop stars. A Santiago spring for democracy? Perhaps. This is the tightest election Chile has seen in years, and interest is keen. Lagos, 61, will wrap up his campaign on Dec. 9 with his own street rally. At the Lavin affair, the most startling sight were all the teens and children. As the rally broke up, graying dads and moms held onto a string of five, six, or seven kids, trailing down in age order like ducklings. Lavin, 46, has seven children -- a fact he features in campaign literature. It has all been part of a strategy to distance this scion of the radical right from his once-ardent support for General Augusto Pinochet and Chile's military coup. "Whatever happened in the past, I am one of you," is Lavin's message. And it seems to be working. The former Pinochet government economist is running neck-and-neck with Lagos, according to most polls. "It's the first time young people have been able to identify with politics," bubbles Lavin rally-goer Javiera Paredes, 18. "Before, it was always clear who was going to win." REJECTED. Indeed it was. After 17 years of iron rule, Pinochet allowed a plebiscite on his continued rule in 1988 under international pressure. It was a simple yes-no choice, and the general was sure he would prevail. Instead, Chileans rejected his rule, and Chile returned to democracy in 1990 with the election of Patricio Aylwin, a center-left Christian Democrat most thought could heal old wounds. His successor in 1994, Eduardo Frei (Chilean Presidents serve six years but cannot run consecutively), practically inherited the job from his famous father, 1960s Christian Democrat power-broker and President Eduardo Frei Sr. Frei Jr., now a lame duck, has been regularly roasted by TV comedians for his penchant for globe-trotting to international trade conferences. But integrating Chile into the larger economic world is no laughing matter. Much of Chile's sterling growth record over the past decade was achieved under the open door policies of center-left rule. Stability and clear ground rules were key to the decision, for instance, by U.S.-based Home Depot Inc. to build four stores in Chile since August, 1998. The outlets are the company's first outside North America, says Bill Pena, Home Depot's regional president for Chile and Argentina. "If we can have our current results with the economy the way it is now, we'll have a great opportunity when it recovers,'' he says. FIELD DAY. And there's the rub for Lagos and the center-leftists. Chile is having its worst recession since the early 1980s. Unemployment hovers over 10%, and crime is up, from the millionaire enclaves down to the roughest backstreets. So Frei has embarked on a television counterattack, making himself available for interviews as rarely before. Also, the Left dusted off a perennial nonstarter of a labor bill and tried to railroad it through the Chilean Congress this year. It would have given unions the power to negotiate by industry, rather than by company, and prevented the replacement of striking workers. The bill was killed in the Chilean Senate, where the Right has the advantage of several lifetime seats named by Pinochet. But Lavin has had a field day, lashing the Socialists with it as a reminder of the "old ways" of Chilean politics. Most observers expect that neither Lavin nor Lagos will achieve an outright majority in the voting on Sunday. That would necessitate a second round of voting -- set for Jan. 16 -- since one candidate has to win an absolute majority to take office. A handful of alternative candidates, including the traditional Communist candidate, an environmentalist, and dissenters from the center-left and center-right, are expected to drain away around 11% of the first-round of votes. Undecideds or don't knows are an additional 5% or so. A TOSSUP. Until mid-November, polls pointed to a Lagos sweep, but the gap has closed, and now the race appears to be up in the air. A Dec. 1 poll showed Lavin holding a 43%-40% lead over Lagos among Chilean voters. But the latest poll on Dec. 7 showed Lagos back on top with a 48%-41% margin. Who will win? It's likely Lagos can turn out enough support from wavering Communists, indigenous voters, and nostalgic centrists to win a plurality on Sunday. But it could be a tossup in the Jan. 16 runoff. If Lavin can pull it off, Chileans will have changed governments with no more drama than restrained TV debate, and a few upbeat street rallies. That would be a remarkable feat. By Greg Brown in Santiago EDITED BY DOUGLAS HARBRECHT _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ |
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