Energy Bill's Proponents Prepare Counterattack

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On Sept. 2, for instance, the industry-funded American Energy Alliance bus tour stopped by a Columbus Clippers baseball game to get fans to agree that a cap on "energy," as Alliance staff describe it, in the U.S. would be like imposing a devastating salary cap on a handful of baseball teams. In fact, the legislation wouldn't cap energy but rather emissions of carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases); it would require companies to get a permit or allowance for every ton of carbon they emit, which could be bought or sold on a market.

But proponents insist they have a good hand to play—assuming they can get the message across. For one thing, they expect their opponents' aggressive tactics, which include forging letters purportedly from grassroots groups, may backfire. "It's not the way to do business in this town anymore," says Exelon's Moler. "I believe most senators recognize a lavish campaign funded by oil companies for what it is."

In addition, polls show that Americans favor what emissions curbs would accomplish, a shift to cleaner, greener energy. That's in contrast with health care, where the fear of change is huge. It also explains why supporters of the climate bill are planning to hammer home the message that legislation would bring more green jobs, a cleaner environment, and less dependence on foreign energy sources, rather than trying to scare people with dire predictions of the consequences of global warming. "Even those who deny climate change are supporting clean energy and energy independence," says Fox. "Our job is to put a face and voice on the clean energy economy."

If Congress Fails: Tougher EPA Rules

Those voices will compete with the opposition's chants of "massive tax" and "job-killer" to try to win converts across the U.S. But once the Senate begins to take up climate legislation seriously, proponents will use a more potent argument directly with lawmakers. If Congress doesn't impose reasonable climate curbs in legislation, the Environmental Protection Agency will step in with potentially more draconian rules that will be worse for business. In fact, the EPA has already drafted proposed justifications and rules for regulating greenhouse gases, as ordered by a 2007 Supreme Court case.

"I'm surprised by how many people think the choice is between legislation or nothing," says Keith Belton, director of government affairs at Dow Chemical (DOW). Lobbyists for companies supporting legislation plan to ask senators who oppose a bill if that means they favor the EPA's regulatory approach. "I haven't heard good answers to that," says Belton.

The battle ahead will be contentious and messy. Opponents of climate legislation are stoking the same "big government" fears that have made health care so divisive. Complicating matters, some environmental activists are opposing the current House bill for being too weak, while groups that want even more than they got in the House legislation, such as the farm lobby, are lining up for special treatment in a Senate bill.

"At the end of the day, the Senate bill will be very different," predicts Michael Morris, CEO of American Electric Power (AEP), a Columbus (Ohio)-based utility—one of the country's biggest users of coal—that supports the bill. But getting any legislation through the Senate would be a victory—and proponents aren't giving up yet. "It's still possible to achieve broader consensus in the Senate than in the House," says Dow's Belton.

Carey is a senior correspondent for BusinessWeek in Washington.

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