Energy September 8, 2009, 2:19PM EST

Energy Bill's Proponents Prepare Counterattack

While Washington focuses on health care, another battle looms in the Senate for carbon cap-and-trade legislation

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Even as the health-care fight dominates the headlines, another Washington battle is heating up over climate and energy. In late June, the House of Representatives passed a landmark bill putting caps on the emissions that cause global warming, and the Senate is expected to take up the measure in late September or October—if it first manages to deal with health care. In anticipation, opponents such as the National Association of Manufacturers, the American Petroleum Institute, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce have mounted an expensive campaign of ads and rallies to try to win over key senators.

The lineup of powerful opponents—along with the partisan divide that has developed over health care—has fueled speculation that the climate legislation is dying. The opponents "clearly have the jump on us," acknowledges Betsy Moler, lobbyist for Chicago-based utility Exelon (EXC), a strong supporter of the bill. But proponents are plotting a strong counterattack, and they believe they have at least a fighting chance of succeeding, in part because regulators are poised to act if Congress doesn't. "There is reason for guarded optimism," says Steven Corneli, senior vice-president for market and climate policy at NRG Energy (NRG), a Princeton (N.J.)-based utility pushing hard for carbon caps.

Exelon and NRG are among the leaders of a coalition of companies gearing up to get out the message that a big chunk of Corporate America, from Alcoa (AA) and GE (GE) to the utility industry, believe that caps on carbon emissions and policies to boost cleaner energy are crucial. They are planning op-ed articles, media campaigns, and a procession of CEOs, such as Exelon's John W. Rowe, a Republican, to plead their case in the Senate.

Meanwhile, environmental groups have been running ads praising representatives who voted for the House bill as heroes, going door to door and calling thousands of people in key states, and organizing a tour through the heartland, featuring steelworkers-turned-windmill makers and other clean energy workers.

On Sept. 8, supporters stepped up their efforts. A group of 64 environmental organizations, labor unions, business groups, activists, sportsmen, and religious organizations launched a coordinated multimillion-dollar campaign, dubbed Clean Energy Works, to push for legislation. "All of us are coming together and pooling our resources," explains Maggie L. Fox, CEO of the Alliance for Climate Protection, a group founded by Al Gore. The members include American Hunters & Shooters, Business Forward, Catholics United, the Natural Resources Defense Council, VoteVets, and the United Steelworkers.

Legislation Hinges on Swing Votes

The battle will be fought with ads, meetings, and calls all across the country. But ultimately the fight is "really about the hearts and minds of about 20 people," explains Exelon's Moler—the swing votes in the Senate. On the list: more than a dozen moderate Democrats, such as Arkansas' Blanche Lincoln, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad of North Dakota, and Mark Warner and Jim Webb of Virginia, as well as a handful of Republicans—Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, and John McCain of Arizona.

Winning over moderate Democrats will be tough enough. Getting any Republicans on board will be even harder, given the apparent GOP strategy of voting against every initiative of President Obama. Plus, manufacturers, oil companies, and the Chamber of Commerce are spending many millions of dollars on ads, rallies, and grassroots efforts to quash the bill. "Our message to senators is that the [House] bill is an anti-jobs, anti-energy piece of legislation," says Jay Timmons, executive vice-president of the National Association of Manufacturers. "It will shrink our nation's economy, make us less competitive with foreign countries, raise energy costs for consumers and businesses, take away disposable income for Americans, and cause significant job loss."