Jobs October 5, 2009, 9:48PM EST

A Pickup in Orders, Not Hiring

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Andros sees more talented and experienced applicants, and they're so eager to secure employment now that they'll accept less money than before. "It's like the housing market," she says. "You can buy a house at a bargain right now, and you can get an employee at a bargain, too."

Betting that consumers will desire more flat-screen televisions, smartphones, and netbooks as holiday shopping picks up, Best Buy CEO Brian J. Dunn has said the company will hire more seasonal staff this holiday season than last year. But Best Buy (BBY) is hardly indicative of big retailers' broader outlook, according to Philadelphia-based consultancy Hay Group. In a survey released earlier this month, Hay Group found that 10 of the 25 U.S. retailers it polled plan to hire 5% to 25% fewer seasonal workers this year—and more than half plan to lay off workers. At the same time, most of those companies are seeing a rise in job applications.

Waiting for Clarity

A survey of 28,000 employers by Manpower (MAN) released on Sept. 8 found that nearly 70% did not anticipate hiring in the fourth quarter. Just 12% said they would be adding new workers. The projections are the bleakest since Manpower began the survey in 1962. The only good news for job seekers is that while jobs continue to vanish, they are doing so at a slower rate.

So when will hiring pick up? When the shape of the recovery is clearer, says Ed Newman, president of the Newman Group, a talent-consulting unit of Korn/Ferry's (KFY) Futurestep. He thinks employment will rise in the next three to six months, as new fiscal years bring fresh budgets. "Everyone's trying to figure out when to jump in with both feet," he says. "It's a bit of a chicken-and-egg game right now, because of the uncertainty."

Jonas Prising, president of Manpower's operations in North and South America, says job growth will start as soon as the second quarter of next year. "Companies will only hire when they see a real uptick in their business which they believe is sustainable and not just a blip," he says. "This means that they will not hire, as compared to other recessions, just in anticipation of a robust recovery."

Deprez is a reporter for BusinessWeek.