Bill Kristol: Reagan Revolution Isn't Over

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How do the Republicans win back the mantle of fiscal prudence after the past eight years, and what does the party have to do to rebuild?
My main counsel to Republicans and conservatives would be to let 1,000 flowers bloom. Don't think we can sit around in Washington and New York and figure out the future of the conservative movement. Let a lot of people make their cases, and let a lot of young politicians try to make their name by proposing interesting policy solutions to the problems we face.

In 2004, a book called The Right Nation by journalists at The Economist suggested that America could be headed for years of conservative dominance. That scenario seems to be falling apart. What went wrong?
I think [the scenario] fell apart in '06. It always pays to be a contrarian in politics as in the markets, you know. Whenever there's a consensus that conservatives are ascendant, that they're going to govern for decades, it's a good idea to bet on liberals—and vice versa. You know, in the '70s, everyone thought liberals were going to govern forever. Republicans were in total disarray after Goldwater and Watergate. And of course, then came Reagan. So, you know, these things are somewhat cyclical in politics as in markets. And parties overreach. And I think Bush just made a lot of mistakes…and they really frittered away a chance to govern successfully with a Republican President and Republican Congress.

But Noonan attacked Palin, Colin Powell endorsed Obama on Meet the Press, and Chris Buckley has been booted out of The National Review, the conservative magazine his father founded, for supporting Obama. Aren't we seeing a real fracturing of the Republican Party?
I don't think so. I mean, at this stage, the fracturing is among a few leaders, not among the public. In a way, there has been too much top-down control of the Republican Party over the past several years. It hasn't been healthy. In some respects, a little fracturing is a good thing. Creative destruction, you know? A little bit of arguing, a little bit of fighting doesn't hurt a party when it's out of power.

Is the election over, or will a lot of pundits be surprised on Election Day?
I hope they're surprised, because one of the things I dislike most about pundits is their deep desire to proclaim elections over before they're over. Pundits love telling us what's inevitably going to happen—the Dow going to 36,000, America losing its strength in the world, the war in Iraq is doomed, the surge won't work.

If the Republicans are as soundly defeated as some are predicting, who will the party look to as leaders to pick up the pieces?
It will be very unpredictable. Think of it this way: The Democrats were soundly defeated in 2004. Who is now the leader of the Democratic Party four years later? Barack Obama, who was a state senator at this time in October 2004.

Maria Bartiromo is the anchor of CNBC's Closing Bell.