Holiday Sales to Drop as Forecasters See 'Discipline'

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The black leather purse she got was $14.97 marked down from $59.98. "I had to jump up and down and blink," she said.

On Black Friday, Richfield (Minn.)-based Best Buy (BBY), the biggest electronics chain, had bigger early-morning crowds and more online visitors than last year, said CEO Brian Dunn. "Those are both directionally important indicators for us," he said in a Nov. 27 Bloomberg Television interview. Best Buy rose 77¢, or 1.8%, to 43.60 at 10:18 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

$300 Laptops

Holiday sales make up a third or more of retailers' annual profit. The International Council of Shopping Centers, another industry trade group, predicted sales at stores open at least a year will advance 1% in November and December after a year-earlier 5.8% decline, the worst in 40 years.

Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, attracted consumers with $298 Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) laptop computers and other specials that went on sale at 5 a.m. the day after Thanksgiving. The stock declined 13¢ to 54.50 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Renee McDonald, 40, started waiting at 5 a.m. outside a Wal-Mart in Houston, hoping to purchase a television. When the store ran out, she bought a digital camera instead.

Black Friday shopping at J.C. Penney stores was strong throughout the U.S., the Plano (Tex.)-based retailer said in an e-mailed statement on Nov. 28. J.C. Penney and other retailers plan to report November sales on Dec. 3. The retailer fell 44¢ to 29.06 on the New York Stock Exchange.

At the Macy's in New York's Herald Square, shopper traffic appeared greater than a year ago, and continued to flow in after the initial rush, Chairman and CEO Terry Lundgren said. Jewelry and housewares were selling "briskly," he said. Macy's, based in Cincinnati, dropped 44¢ to 16.53 on the New York Stock Exchange.

"Last year we were just getting rid of the inventory we bought six months before," Lundgren said. "This year we've had a year to think through what is the sales trend."

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To contact the reporter on this story: Lauren Coleman-Lochner in New York at llochner@bloomberg.net.

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