Hollywood's Holiday Headache

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Focusing on Summer

Fact is, for reasons that escape me, Hollywood seems to have taken a holiday this Christmas. Instead, they seem to be loading up on flicks for the summer—where a heck of a roadblock awaits them. The next installments in the Shrek, Harry Potter, and Spider-Man series—and even The Simpsons movie—are scheduled for summer 2007. "In summer, it's Saturday night every night of the week," says Revolution studio partner and former Fox Distribution Chief Tom Sherak.

Sherak is betting that that Rocky Balboa, which Revolution is producing and MGM is releasing, will make a dent this Christmas. And Walt Disney snuck in a winner with Denzel Washington and his time-traveling thriller Deja Vu, which opened strongly with $20.8 million. But according to box office analysts at Box Office Mojo, the movie "packed less punch" than prior Thanksgiving flicks from director Tony Scott, such as Enemy of the State in 1998.

That's not to say there's a shortage of movies this season. It's just that brand names and marketing buzz are in short supply, says BrandIntel's Michael Corintine, the lead market analyst. BrandIntel measures market buzz for companies by trolling and analyzing online blog, community, and other kinds of traffic. Fox's Eragon, a big-budget wannabe Lord of the Rings written by a 19-year-old Montana kid? Zilch, says Corintine. Same for Apocalypto, the Mel Gibson-directed Aztec action flick that was moved from summer to take advantage of the Christmas lull.

Slow Ticket Sales

Last weekend, a few buzz-free flicks failed to hit the ground running. The Weinstein Brothers' flick Bobby flopped, says Box Office Mojo, and the Danny DeVito-Matthew Broderick flick Deck the Halls from Fox (NWS) grossed an estimated $12 million, trailing last year's weak sister Yours, Mine and Ours. (And wasn't that DeVito and Broderick I saw this morning on The Today Show, giving out toys and working the line, trying to gin up some late, late buzz?)

Still, Dergarabedian, an optimist if I ever met one, figures Hollywood has a few other hits flying under the radar. He thinks Warner Bros. will hit pay dirt with We Are Marshall, which chronicles a university football team after most of its players die in a plane crash. Dergarabedian also predicts big things for Dreamgirls, the Paramount flick based on the Broadway show.

What's got Dergarabedian so optimistic? He believes that "quality will win out. Moviegoers will come to the theaters when there is a quality movie for them to see." He may be right. But if I'm a movie mogul lunching at The Grill, I'd just as soon have a big helping of buzz instead.

Grover is Los Angeles bureau manager for BusinessWeek.