High Tension in a Missouri Race

Stem cell research and celebrities aside, what's at stake is business in the state—and control of the Senate

by Richard S. Dunham

The Senate race in Missouri pits incumbent Republican Jim Talent against Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill. But to hear all the guff about celebrity interlopers in the razor-close contest, you'd think it was a race between liberal actor Michael J. Fox and conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh. Or a popularity contest between Fox, the former star of TV's Family Ties and Spin City, and Patricia Heaton, late of Everybody Loves Raymond.

What's gotten so many people upset, and piqued the interest of business, is the close connection between the Missouri Senate race and a separate item on the Nov. 7 ballot to legalize stem cell research in the Show Me State. McCaskill, a pro-choice Democrat, is a strong supporter of the constitutional amendment to legalize embryonic stem cell research. Talent, along with pro-life celebrities such as Heaton, opposes it. Business is caught in the middle, as is often the case when social issues dominate the political world.

Business groups strongly support the stem cell proposal, arguing that it will help Missouri's struggling economy by attracting biotech and academic research to the state. They are joined by former Republican Senator John Danforth, a revered figure in the state and a close business ally.

Who is Business Backing?

But companies also strongly back Republican Talent, who opposes their interests on stem cell research. Talent has received more than $5 million from business political action committees, or 80% of his PAC contributions, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. Among his top corporate supporters are Anheuser-Busch (BUD), Enterprise Rent-A-Car, Monsanto (MON), and Boeing (BA), all major Missouri employers.

He has received more than a half-million from industries including health care, securities, and real estate. McCaskill, strongly backed by organized labor, has received just $66,750 from business, about 10% of her PAC totals. Polls show the stem cell proposal leading comfortably. The Senate race is a toss-up.

The Missouri contest could well determine how much control the Democrats end up with in Washington. Most experts predict that they will win the 15 seats necessary for a majority in the House. The Senate, however, is likely to be a closer battle. Republicans currently have a 55-44 lead in the Senate, with one independent.

Geography Counts

Democrats must take six GOP seats to claim the majority. They are almost certain to upend Republicans in Pennsylvania and Ohio and are running ahead in Rhode Island. That leaves four states—Missouri, Virginia, Montana, and Tennessee—that will decide the election. Democrats must win three of these toss-up races. Therefore with Republicans gaining momentum in Montana and Tennessee, Missouri is a must-win for the Democrats.

McCaskill, who narrowly lost a race for governor two years ago, has spent months traveling the state in an RV with her mother. She hammers Talent as a Bush puppet who votes with the President 94% of the time in Washington while positioning himself as an independent voice when he's back in Missouri.

Republicans counter that McCaskill doesn't share the state's conservative social values. "Claire McCaskill still has the wrong positions for rural Missouri," says Senator Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.), chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Tapping Star Power

But the debate over stem cell research has overshadowed other issues. Fox, who suffers from Parkinson's Disease, heated things up when he appeared in an ad for McCaskill that criticized Talent's philosophical opposition to embryonic stem cell research, which the senator believes is murder.

"Unfortunately, Senator Jim Talent opposes expanding stem cell research," said Fox, whose body moved uncontrollably during the 30-second spot. "Senator Talent even wanted to criminalize the science that gives us a chance for hope."

Pro-life opponents fired back with an ad featuring a member of the St. Louis Cardinals championship baseball team and celebrities such as Heaton and Jim Caviezel, who starred as Jesus in Mel Gibson's The Passion of the Christ. Limbaugh, a Missouri native, effectively nationalized the Senate election by claiming that Fox "didn't take his medication or was acting" during his anti-Talent commercial, a statement for which he later apologized.

The Republican National Committee has a vaunted get-out-the-vote program that helped President Bush carry Missouri with ease two years ago. "We know that the GOP has a very good turnout machine," says Senator Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. "And so we've done things that the DSCC has never done before." In the key battlegrounds of Missouri and Montana, that meant creating voter databases from scratch.

Both sides in the stem cell debate are passionate, and fundamentalist Christian churches across Missouri are gearing up to turn out their parishioners. The Fox-Limbaugh contretemps has energized activists on both sides of the abortion debate. But it has left business leaders and Republicans like Danforth in the middle. On Election Day, they could be disappointed by either the defeat of the stem cell proposition or the removal of a pro-business senator.

Richard S. Dunham is a senior writer for BusinessWeek.