Alarm over Chavez's Military Buildup

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There is also a domestic component to Chávez's military purchases, says Mark Joyce, Americas security analyst at London-based Jane's Information Group. The military was instrumental in turning back the 2002 coup, and continues to play a political role in the government, with many former officers leading ministries, state agencies, and state companies. "Chávez is buying a lot of toys for his [military] people to keep them on his side," says Joyce.

But those purchases continue to alarm his neighbors, including Brazil, Colombia, and Guyana. "Brazil has increased its military budget by 50%," after Chávez's buildup, says Rebecca Barrett, an analyst with Newton (Conn.)-based Forecast International, a security and military consultant. Other countries could follow suit, she says.

Small-Arms Sales Loom Large

Unexpectedly, it's not Chávez's big-ticket items that cause the most concern. The weapon that could have the most impact on the region's security is the AK-47, say analysts. Chávez said he purchased the rifles to rearm his army as well as his civilian guard. But as part of the AK-47 purchase, Russia agreed to help Venezuela build a new rifle factory in the central industrial city of Maracay. Some analysts claim that the factory's output could eventually make its way to rebel groups throughout the region, including the FARC.

"The AK-47 is the weapon of choice for mayhem in the region," says Walser. "Venezuela wants to arm its civilian reserve, but given corruption and crime you could see a seepage of weapons."

That could lead to additional conflicts, similar to last week's contretemps. Chávez said on Mar. 9 that he would restore full diplomatic relations with Colombia and promised to lift a trade embargo as well. Venezuela already began recalling troops sent to the border. But Ecuador, which also broke ties with Bogotá, has said it isn't ready to reestablish them just yet.

"For now, tensions will remain under the surface," says Buxton. "There are underlying antagonisms that will continue to fester." Chief among them is Colombia's civil war, and Chávez's belief that neighboring countries have "a regional role to play." Colombian President Alvaro Uribe says the FARC is a terrorist organization and that the conflict is strictly a Colombian matter.

Despite Chávez's military buildup, Venezuela's military pales in comparison to Colombia's. The Colombian military outmans Venezuela's armed forces by nearly 2 to 1, excluding Venezuela's civilian reserve.

The Colombian army is also battle-tested, thanks to U.S. training and four decades of battling the FARC, whereas Venezuela's military has only seen limited action, chiefly against irregular forces on the Colombian border. Venezuela's only edge is its air force, but the Sukhoi fighter aircraft are still being integrated and "flight crews still being trained," says Joyce.

Popularity Decline

"We want to end all regional conflicts," Chávez said on Mar. 7 after reaching agreement with Uribe and Ecuador's President Rafael Correa to end the dispute peacefully. "We want peace."

Not all Venezuelans are convinced. Many are apprehensive of Chávez's military ambitions at a time when domestic problems, such as crime, inflation, and food shortages remain pressing. El Nacional reported that Chávez's popularity fell 18%, after the mobilization of troops to the border, according to a private poll undertaken by the government.

"I don't know what Chávez is doing, but we never had these problems, these military problems before," says Jose Hernandez, whose son was sent to the border as part of an armored battalion. "I don't want my son to be put in danger because our President is crazy."

Wilson is a special correspondent based in Caracas.