New Debate Over Nuclear Option

(page 2 of 2)

True enough, van Leeuwen says. But he argues that it's precisely this kind of overall approach that's necessary to understand the carbon impact of new energy sources. The British report says that nuclear's carbon emissions "lie somewhere between renewable energy sources and fossil fuels." The report estimates that while coal, the primary source of electric power in the U.S., produces 755 grams of carbon per kilowatt hour, the range for nuclear is between 10 and 150 grams per kilowatt hour. Wind power is 11 to 37 grams.

But van Leeuwen contends that nuclear will become more carbon polluting over time. The reason is that it will become more difficult to do things like extract uranium ore and store nuclear waste, requiring more materials, equipment, and energy. The report calculates that if world nuclear generating capacity remains at today's level—just over 2% of the world's energy supply—then by 2070 uranium-fueled nuclear power would produce as much CO&sub2; as a gas-fired power station, or nearly 400 grams of carbon per kilowatt hour. If the world increases its use of nuclear power, the emissions could go even higher. "The claim of the nuclear industry that nuclear power emits low levels of CO&sub2; and other greenhouse gases is not based on scientifically verifiable evidence," reads the report.

Moving Ahead, Slowly

Authors of the report also say that since building nuclear plants can take up to 10 years, they wouldn't help curb carbon emissions within the next decade, which is the time frame many scientists say bold steps must be taken to slow the warming trend. "It's a case of too little, too late," says van Leeuwen, a physical chemist and a member of the review panel for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (The IPCC is the international group of scientists that issued a report in February confirming that global warming is a real phenomenon, and that humans are its main agents.)

While Exelon has won preliminary approval for its new nuclear plant in Clinton (Ill.), it isn't proceeding with construction right away. Nesbit says the company will not go ahead with building the Clinton plant until it's clear that market conditions and local support for the plant are favorable. The decision to commit the $6 billion to $10 billion for construction could take several years.

Nesbit says that a majority of Americans support nuclear power now—provided there is adequate plant security. Exelon is moving cautiously, exploring other sites in Texas. "The bottom line is that you can't be carbon emissions-free on a mass scale without nuclear power," Nesbit says.

Other U.S.-based nuclear power providers are seeking opportunities, too. Charlotte (N.C.)-based Duke Energy (DUK), the fourth-largest provider of nuclear power in the U.S., is looking to construct more plants. The company's Chief Executive Officer, Jim Rogers, testified before a joint House of Representatives committee on Mar. 20, calling for more openness to the nuclear option, as well as a mandatory cap on carbon emissions in the U.S. That day, the utilities commission in North Carolina green-lighted the company's efforts to build a new nuclear plant in Cherokee County, S.C., jointly owned by Southern Company (SO).

Revisiting Positions

Nuclear power producers are hoping the tide of public fear and environmentalist opposition is turning. While not voicing outright support, a handful of American environmental groups have recently expressed openness to at least consider nuclear power as part of the energy mix of the future. The Union of Concerned Scientists, Natural Resources Defense Council, and Environmental Defense are among those expressing cautious openness. The Union of Concerned Scientists said in a position paper this month that atomic energy "should be considered as a longer-term option if other climate-neutral means for producing electricity prove inadequate," though it opposes new capacity until problems like waste disposal are resolved. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has also expressed support for exploring ways to get more nuclear plants on line.

Still, many of the best-known environmental groups, including the Sierra Club and Greenpeace, are opposed to nuclear power because of concerns about the disposal of radioactive waste, the proliferation of deadly nuclear material, and the high cost of constructing nuclear plants. In addition, the location slated by the U.S. government to store the bulk of U.S. nuclear waste, Yucca Mountain in Nevada, is not permitted to do so because of fierce opposition from Nevada residents and politicians.

For now, nuclear supporters will proceed cautiously with plans to expand operations. But they could be hindered if groups like the Oxford Research Group can convince the public and governments around the world that even the safest nuclear operation won't help stop global warming.

Herbst is a reporter for BusinessWeek.com in New York.