Air France Crash: Hunting for Black Boxes

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a changing cost equation

Yet many in the field expect that someday flight data and pilot communications will be beamed from airplanes, as transmission, computing, and storage costs continue to fall. "I don't think it's going to happen in my career," says Coffey, 52. "Change occurs very slowly in this industry," he said. "I think eventually if satellite transmission rates become affordable, then…you will have some operators looking at this." He expects transmission will ultimately become standard.

Elwell, with the AIA, says fuel costs will also factor into the math for airlines. Each box weighs roughly 10 pounds, a minor load except when calculated across a growing global air fleet in an era when fossil fuel costs are likely to rise. "At some point it will be cheaper to transmit the information off-ship and store it than the gas you burn to haul the…box," Elwell says.

The National Transportation Safety Board, which investigates U.S. airline incidents and recommends regulatory changes to the Federal Aviation Administration, has not taken a position on flight data or voice-recorder transmissions. Neither agency is pursuing the issue.

As for finding such boxes in the deep oceans, mapping sonar is one potential aid. The French investigative authority, BEA, has sought information from C & C Technologies, a Lafayette (La.) outfit that operates underwater sonar vehicles for oil companies, shipwreck exploration, and other deep-sea work. A search of the area using that equipment would cost as much as $90,000 per day, C & C president and CEO Thomas Chance said. C&C's "autonomous underwater vehicles" transmit low-frequency sonar to map undersea terrain. If an object needing further inquiry is spotted, high-frequency signals provide a more detailed read. The vehicle also has a camera. "We're ready to go if they ever decide to call us," Chance said Thursday.

Until they're found, the missing boxes leave uncertainty about whether a safety problem exists for other Airbus planes. And the lack of crash details adds to the pain of those who lost loved ones. Marco Tulio Moreno Marques, a Brazilian attorney who lost his parents in the Air France crash, told the Associated Press on July 2: "They can say a flying saucer hit the plane, but if they don't find the black boxes we will never know for certain what happened."

Bachman is deputy news director for BusinessWeek.com.