Democrats Brace for Year of Living Dangerously

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Democrats currently enjoy a 257 to 178 majority in the House and a 60 to 40 advantage in the Senate, where two independents caucus with the majority party. To date, four House Democrats have announced their retirements, and Republicans like their prospects in each of those contests.

Flurry of Retirements

California Republican Congressman Kevin McCarthy, who is helping direct his party's campaign to take control of the House, says his "magic number" would be 15 Democratic retirees. He expects the Democratic withdrawals to be "fast and furious" in the next few weeks as filing deadlines approach.

The Republicans' major impediment, however, may be internal struggles as conservatives mount challenges to front-running, more centrist candidates (and arguably stronger general-election candidates) in a few House districts and in Senate contests in Connecticut, Florida, California and Illinois. If these skirmishes become bitter, Republican prospects will dim.

Crisis: Obama will face one, most likely international; perhaps soon with the al-Qaeda presence in Yemen. How he handles it will affect his party's performance in November.

Shaping Perceptions

Crises aren't always major events. President Ronald Reagan's triumphs over the air-traffic controllers or Obama's handling of Somalian piracy last April weren't sweeping historical moments, but helped shape presidential perceptions, or in Obama's case mitigate concerns about weakness. Conversely, the botched U.S. policy in Somalia haunted Clinton through the first midterm elections.

For all the tragedy of 9-11, it was a political bonanza for President George W. Bush. The country was united and the rally- around-the-flag mindset carried through to the midterm elections in 2002. Republicans were even able to successfully question the patriotism of Georgia Democratic Senator Max Cleland, who lost three limbs in the Vietnam War.

If a major crisis occurs and the president rises to the occasion, it will lift other Democrats. President John F. Kennedy's deft handling of the Cuban missile crisis in 1962 resonated with the country and helped his fellow Democrats in the congressional elections a few weeks later.

(Albert R. Hunt is the executive editor for Washington at Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: Albert R. Hunt in Washington at ahunt1@bloomberg.net.