Ten Business Predictions for 2009

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Oil Rises Again

There's a fair chance for a resurgence in oil prices, even if they dip below $30 in the next few months. Crude is likely to average $60 or $70 per barrel in 2009. OPEC will get its act together and rein in supply, and demand won't shrink as much as speculators had feared. Still, oil won't spike to the $100-plus range because consumers remain more energy-conscious. Oil companies will continue to invest in major projects as cash-strapped nations will open their doors to foreign investments just as they have done in the past when times are tough. And commodities are no longer the place for speculators to make a fast buck.

Workers Go Creative

Economists agree that further mass layoffs will continue in 2009, and the unemployment rate could reach the double digits. That means workers will turn creative about job opportunities. Look for freelancing and small business applications to explode as laid off workers attempt to strike out on their own. The downturn also is spurring more business and other graduate school applications, and young people will continue to take shelter at universities to ride out the storm.

Bling Takes a Break

Who can afford bling anymore? Who wants to? The ostentatious—eye-popping expense accounts, showy jewelry, McMansions—will be out and frugality will be back in fashion. Suddenly clipping coupons becomes trendy and, fortified by new Web services, hitchhiking stages a comeback. Boxed wine, already a budget sensation in Europe, will take off in the U.S. Look for eBay (EBAY) to enjoy a revival as Americans turn to the underground market to raise money and scour for bargains.

Business Embraces Big Government

Long considered a thorn in the side of commerce, the government will continue to be the apple of the business community's eye. Why? In tough times, Uncle Sam remains the economy's last resort. That doesn't mean there won't be plenty of fights over how to regulate industries and how to create not just Big Government, but also Smart Government. But by the time all is said and done, the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) funding will go well beyond $700 billion. President Obama will request, and Congress will approve, another several hundred billion in aid. Much of that will go to homeowners, although airlines will probably get a slug of cash as will auto parts makers.

Digital TV Nightmare

Chaos ensues in February when U.S. broadcasters cease analog TV signals, throwing millions of Americans into a dark-screen panic. Despite nearly $1 billion in spending on educational campaigns alerting Americans to the change, surveys show that many of the 40 million or so likely to be affected still don't realize what the digital broadcast shift means to them. The government is offering a $40 subsidy to help pay for converter boxes—but plenty of Americans still using older analog TVs have no idea.

3D Returns in a Big Way

Recession notwithstanding, innovations in 3D technology will flourish. Computing technology firm NVIDIA (NVDA) is bringing realistic 3D effects on the desktop into the market this year, and more movie theatres will have IMAX screens. Consumers also will get a peek at James Cameron's much ballyhooed Avatar, a 3D movie and game the storied producer has been slaving over since 2004.

Consumers Fight Back

Tapped out consumers will look for advocates in Congress for protection against predatory or deceptive practices in areas from credit-card fees to mortgages to exorbitant charges for text messaging by wireless companies. Legislation like the Credit Cardholders' Bill of Rights, which passed in the House in September, will have a better shot at passing the Democrat-controlled Congress and being signed by President Obama.

Housing Hits Bottom, At Last

Super-low mortgage rates—engineered by the government to help zap the economy—finally motivate us to shop for houses again. Prices will remain weak, as people who had kept their houses off the market suddenly put them up for sale as soon as they see a little buying interest. Expect home prices to continue to fall through the end of 2009. While the decline will mean trouble for some, for others, it's a golden opportunity to buy. By early 2010 credit and confidence in the market will be restored, and smart investors will be pleased to see the housing market start to recover.

With Justin Bachman, Stephen Baker, Diane Brady, Peter Coy, Francesca Dimeglio, Peter Elstrom, Theo Francis, Monica Gagnier, Hardy Green, Neil Gross, Moira Herbst, Steve LeVine, Chris Palmeri, Jane Sasseen, and Stephen Wildstrom